By the end of this week, a long pause in billet sales from the ASEAN region has been terminated with over 100,000 mt sold to traders, who have become more confident in rises in China seen since Monday.
According to a number of market sources, 100,000 mt of ex-Indonesia billet have been traded at $450-453/mt FOB today. And the mill has increased its official offer for October by $3/mt to $453/mt FOB for October shipment. The volume has been taken by traders for long positions and at the moment buyers in all major trade destinations are not ready to accept such levels yet. “China’s local coking coal is in shortage now, so definitely there is a cost push for steel prices,” a Singapore-based trader said. The confidence among traders has increased as, unlike in the previous times, the uptrend has been triggered not only by expectations and speculations, but also by the fundamental factors like supply control in the coking coal segment in China. Coking coal and coke futures jumped by the maximum limits on Tuesday after the news about production control measures by the government. All coal mines, which exceeded monthly production by 10 percent in H1 2025, will be ordered to suspend production and to pay fees.
In addition, around 30,000 mt of ex-Vietnam billet have been sold at $455/mt FOB, which, however, could not be fully confirmed by the time of publication.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-China billet has been stable from yesterday at $450-460/mt FOB, but up by $20/mt over the past week. “After the coal mine production restrictions, SiFe and MnFe [ferrosilicon and ferromanganese segments] might follow a 40 percent capacity cut, rumors say,” a Chinese trader noted on Friday. Rebar futures, which were less volatile on Wednesday and Thursday, again posted a significant rise on Friday - by 2.32 percent.