Ex-India billet prices have increased in the past week amid rumors of deals in the Middle East at higher levels, but a significant section of market sources believe that the sustainability of the price trend in the coming period will be driven by China, SteelOrbis learned from trade and industry circles on Wednesday, May 14.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India billet has improved to $425-435/mt FOB, moving up by $15/mt from the indicative level seen last week. Sentiments in the market have improved significantly with more Asian sellers active in submitting offers, buoyed by the positive US-China talks on tariffs and hopes of a rebound in market conditions.
Although no deals have been confirmed in the market, rumors have been rife of at least two Indian mills concluding contracts aggregating up to 50,000 mt in the Middle East at $430-435/mt FOB, and some market sources voiced even higher levels, which, however, were assessed as “unreasonably high”.
Moreover, no confirmation of these two trades even at $430-435/mt FOB was available, and some market participants believe that “these rumors reflect hopes of a rebound round the corner”.
This section of the market pointed out that, while the pause on US-China tariffs for 90 days was a “strong positive in terms of outlook, the fundamentals of the steel market remain on a weak foundation and forecasts of prices having hit a bottom may be premature.”
“Yes, unlike the earlier week when local sellers had exited the market, more sellers are now active in submitting offers. But deals are elusive. Just a few successful sales will prompt sellers to hike offers. Whether deals work out at higher levels is still an unknown,” an Indian seller said.
Meanwhile, reports of a tightening of a merchant trade in semis with at least two large integrated mills shutting down for maintenance have boosted billet trade prices in the local market. Billet trade prices are up INR 600/mt ($7/mt) to INR 42,900/mt ($502/mt) ex-Mumbai and have gained INR 200/mt ($3/mt) to INR 40,700/mt ($476/mt) ex-Raipur in the central region.
$1 = INR 85.39