Major Russian billet exporters have become inactive after active sales, mainly to Turkey, over the past two weeks, and their prices are expected to be stable or slightly move up with lack of support from buyers in the near future.
Russian mills have managed to sell up to 200,000 mt in the second half of October, mainly to Turkey, but also some volumes to North Africa. But no new bookings have been reported after that. Latest offers to Turkey for rather small volumes have been heard at $458/mt CFR, translating to $438/mt FOB or so. Some market sources reported targets at not below $460/mt CFR, but this is based mainly on completed order books rather than an improvement in Turkey. “Nobody is at the market for any purchases”, a Turkish source said.
As a result, import offers from Asia in Turkey are not in much demand, considering the long lead times and the fact that many buyers had already restocked ex-Black Sea billet. The latest offers from China have been mainly heard at $475/mt CFR for December shipments, while $5/mt lower indications have also been reported. Last week, the offers from China stood at $465/mt CFR, up from $457/mt CFR in earlier concluded deals. “Turkey today would be looking for something at around $455-460/mt CFR maximum. Despite a certain uptrend, the general market situation does not look that good over here,” a market source told SteelOrbis. Both Indonesia and Malaysia are offering for January shipments, therefore these origins are not the first choice for Turkish buyers. Prices are at $475-477/mt CFR and $495/mt CFR, respectively, up by around $5-10/mt over fortnight.
Local billet prices in Turkey have weakened by $10/mt in offers to $500-505/mt ex-works, though $510/mt ex-works are also being voiced by some of the producers. The main reason for a decline is the slow business in the rebar segment. According to sources, up to 20,000 mt of billet have been booked at slightly below $505/mt ex-works in the southern part of Turkey. In the Izmir region the prices are at $505/mt ex-works, while in the Marmara region the maximum indications are at $510/mt CPT, sources say.
In Egypt, Russian sellers will look for not below $480/mt CFR, which also translates to around $440/mt on FOB basis for base grade billets. But even the previous rumored sale at $470/mt CFR to this destination was assessed rather high for most Egyptian buyers.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet has been settled at $435-440/mt FOB Black Sea with the midpoint at $437.5/mt FOB, up by $3.5/mt on average from last week as no low-priced deals heard in the market anymore.