Ex-China rebar prices rise amid better fundamentals, market likely to fluctuate at current level for some time

Friday, 16 May 2025 16:53:11 (GMT+3)   |   Shanghai

During the given week, ex-China rebar offer prices have edged up slightly compared to the previous week, following the rebound in the local market, and has also supported ex-ASEAN mills’ offers.

Ex-China rebar offer prices have been heard at $455-465/mt FOB, for June shipment, increasing by $5/mt on average compared to May 9.

During the given week, average rebar prices in the Chinese domestic market have increased. On May 12, the US-China trade negotiations made substantial progress, exerting a positive impact on rebar market sentiments. However, demand from downstream users has not seen any significant improvement, while the recent rainy weather has also contributed to the insufficient demand, resulting in quiet activities in the rebar market. The apparent demand for rebar is likely to decline in the near future as the traditional offseason is approaching. Since there are limited restrictions on semi-finished steel exports, some steelmakers have cut their rebar outputs and produced semi-finished steel instead, reducing inventory levels of rebar and bolstering rebar prices to a certain degree. It is thought that rebar prices in the Chinese domestic market will likely fluctuate within a limited range in the coming week.

In the Singapore market, the offer prices of ex-Malaysia rebar have been heard at $470/mt DAP, theoretical weight, remaining stable compared to last week, which translates to $460-465/mt on CFR basis. Offer prices of ex-China rebar have increased by $5-10/mt over the past week to $475-480/mt CFR, theoretical weight.

In the Hong Kong market, offer prices of ex-Malaysia rebar have been heard at $480/mt CFR, actual weight, though deal prices of ex-China rebar stood at $475/mt CFR, actual weight, before increasing also to $480/mt CFR. Some buyers are still bidding at $465/mt CFR Hong Kong, which is assessed as too low in the current market conditions.

Average rebar spot prices in China have gained RMB 37/mt ($5.1/mt) compared to May 9, standing at RMB 3,270/mt ($454/mt) ex-warehouse, according to SteelOrbis’ information.

As of May 16, rebar futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,082/mt ($428/mt), increasing by RMB 60/mt ($8.3/mt) or 2.0 percent since May 9, while down 1.15 percent compared to the previous trading day, May 15. 

$1 = RMB 7.1938


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