Chinese billet export prices have hit a new low on Wednesday, September 4, as steel futures prices have posted rapid drops for three days in a row, reflecting poor demand conditions. Nevertheless, for now, other Asian suppliers have not been so aggressive and most import markets have failed to react, instead watching for further developments.
The ex-China 3SP billet reference price has lost $10/mt compared to yesterday and $20-25/mt over the past week, hitting $420-430/mt FOB, almost the same low as seen in in the second half of August before the rebound. “Steel futures have kept falling fast, the same as yesterday, and the market is concerned when and how to pause such conditions. Unluckily, the futures market has hit its lowest point since March 2022 and the daily rebar trade volume is still below 100,000 mt,” a Chinese trader said. Another large Chinese trader said that firm offers are seen at $430/mt FOB, but trading as usual in a falling market has been somewhat limited.
“Someone among traders may risk and take a long position [from China], hoping that prices in the import market [in the MENA region in particular] will improve slightly by mid-October,” a trader said.
Other Asian billet exporters have been not a hurry to follow. The Indonesian mill has voiced the levels of $440-445/mt FOB, almost the same as in the latest deals. Since the October shipment order books are full after active sales last week, and as there are still some tentative expectations for China to rebound in mid-September, ASEAN exporters have been taking a wait-and-see position.
In Southeast Asia’s import market, buyers have been waiting for $440-450/mt CFR for 3SP and 5SP, while offers from traders have been from $450/mt CFR for 3SP and $460-465/mt CFR for 5SP at the lowest.
With the slide of the current billet offers, Turkey has gone even quieter in terms of the import billet purchases, considering also a long lead time, which is currently available from Asia. The latest indications for billet from China have been reported at $480/mt CFR, $5-10/mt down over the week, while lower levels are also considered possible in the short run, based on the current FOB prices for Chinese origin. Indonesian billet has not been offered firmly to Turkey in the ongoing market situation, but the traders evaluate the price at the levels of the two weeks ago, at $485-490/mt CFR, which is down from $505/mt CFR over the week. A 40,000 mt billet cargo from Malaysia has been on offer at $495/mt CFR, $10/mt down for this origin since late August, no serious negotiations have been reported. “Currently, China and Malaysia are offering for November shipment, therefore it is doubtful that it can be booked back to back. It is possible for shipments by mid-October at $485-487/mt CFR prices while some sellers are asking $490/mt,” a trader told SteelOrbis.
