Offer prices for ex-China and ex-ASEAN billets have posted some small increase today, March 6, compared to yesterday, though they are almost unchanged from early this week, signaling that the support from the recent announcement from the Two Sessions meetings has not been enough to change the fundamentals in the steel market, at least so far.
The ex-China reference billet price has remained stable at $430-440/mt FOB, similar to Tuesday this week. But most offers have been reported at $440/mt FOB today, versus $435/mt FOB early this week. A few trading sources said that the real market price has failed to change so far with only small rises in offers as iron ore have been falling for days, and, given the tariffs levied by the US, the export market has fluctuated at low levels.
“The market is lagging behind the news about most Tangshan rollers closing production during the Beijing Two Sessions, and also 2025 overall crude steel output will be down by up to 50 million mt, which are positive factors… Generally, the steel market will perform well in the traditional season in March and April,” a Chinese source said. During the Two Session meetings, it was announced that steel production will be reduced in 2025, but no exact volume has been mentioned so far.
Also, in 2025, China’s ultra-long special government bonds will amount to RMB 1.3 trillion ($0.18 trillion), increasing by RMB 0.3 trillion year on year.
Nevertheless, since steel demand has failed to improve for now in China and futures have posted minimal changes, the trend in the Chinese billet market is unsettled for now.
The major Indonesian mill has been offering billets for May shipment at $445/mt FOB today, stable from Tuesday, but up by $5/mt FOB from Wednesday. “Dexin’s price is in line with China now, but China can offer April shipment,” a Singapore-based source said.
