European rebar market tries to catch up with skyrocketing Turkey and Middle East

The rebar market price level in Turkey registered another increase this week, reaching the range of $650-660/mt, excluding VAT, ex-works. Rising scrap costs and strong exports have been supporting the domestic market in Turkey. Due to the winter season, it would not be easy to say that consumption is at a high level. Instead, however, the Turkish domestic market is in line with the general trend in the region.
 
In the Turkish export market, offers at a price level of above $660/mt FOB for late February shipments are being given. Also, it is possible to see offers up to the level of $675/mt FOB. The most active markets for now are the Middle East and Persian Gulf.  There are some upward movements in Europe; however, no increases have been seen which would enable acceptance of the Turkish price level.
 
Traders in the UAE domestic rebar market are trying to increase their retail prices due to the increasing import pressure. They have increased their retail offers to the price level of AED 2,700/mt ($735/mt) delivered to site on a theoretical weight basis for 3- and 4-month deferred payment, excluding VAT, after some sales concluded at the level of 2,650/mt ($721/mt) delivered to site on a theoretical weight basis for 3- and 4-month deferred payment, excluding VAT. In the UAE import market, after the bookings concluded from Turkey coming up to last weekend at the price level of at $700/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis, the Turkish producers' new offers have increased to the price level of $720/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis.
 
In line with the overall longs market trend, Ukrainian rebar producer Arcelor Mittal Kriviy Rih has increased its offer level for export to around $625-630/mt FOB on actual weight basis for late February shipment. If the expected rises are seen after the New Year's Day, more increases could be seen in Ukraine origin rebars.
 
The base transaction prices for rebar in Italy were at the level of €420-425/mt ex-works (base price of $225-230/mt) in recent weeks. Producers are trying to reach a level of €435/mt ex-works (base price of €240/mt). On the other hand, Italian offers to the export market are at the price level of €425-430/mt ($611-618/mt) FOB Italy. In particular, the rising Ukrainian prices may affect the Italian producers' prices positively.
 
In the Spanish domestic market, although the announced base prices are at €240/mt (€455/mt ex-works for 12 mm rebar), it is possible to find a price level of up to €230/mt. However, mills are announcing to their customers that they will increase the base prices to the level of €250/mt. There are not many offers seen in the export market due to the production stops caused by Christmas. If there are any, it is not expected that they will be below €420-425/mt FOB. On the other hand, Bulgarian producers, who exported at the level of €415/mt in past weeks, are reported to be trying to increase their prices this week. It is heard that the producers' target price is €420/mt FOB and above.
 
The rebar prices are increasing overall in Europe. However, this increase is weak compared to the upward trends in Turkey, Ukraine and the Middle East. The biggest factor behind this situation seems to be the slowdown caused by the Christmas holiday. However, most of the market players think that the European market will catch up with the other markets in the New Year.