Long products outlook in Europe, Middle East, CIS

Friday, 07 April 2006 18:06:19 (GMT+3)   |  
       

Domestic rebar prices of the UAE rose AED 100/ton ($27/ton) to AED 1.950/ton ($531/ton) on theoretical weight basis at the beginning of the week and prices started to climb towards AED 2.000/ton ($544/ton). The demand in the domestic market is strong and importers can not find rebars to import for immediate shipments. It is heard that local trading companies are reluctant to sell their stocks in the expectation of a price increase due to these reasons. Turkish producers, who are the largest rebar supplier of importers in the UAE, do not prefer to sell rebars at less than $510/ton CFR on theoretical weight basis. Importers, who are worried about these levels, also pause for offers since they are for late June loading. The prices in the local Israeli market rose to $520-525/ton ex-works at the middle of the week with the pressure of imported rebars. At the beginning of the week, Turkish origin rebars were at $490/ton CFR Israel, but at the middle of the week the prices rose to $505-510/ton CFR. The demand for Turkish rebar in Israel is in good fix. Local Spanish and Portuguese markets are reviving. AENOR-certificated rebar price in Spain rose Euro 10/ton to Euro 510/ton ex-works. In Spain, the producers are expected to increase prices Euro 10-15/ton further by the end of April. Portuguese market was already a good market for the countries that are exporting to Portuguese. However, if the expected price increases come true in the local Spanish market, there can be a revival in the long products' imports again. Whether Spanish and Portuguese markets become active, the important fact is that the importers in these countries are reluctant for July shipments since there will be stagnation in overall Europe at the end of the summer. Therefore, the customers in Europe close self-possessed to Chinese material as the agreed cargoes will come to Europe in July earliest, despite Chinese wire rod prices are lower than the both local producers and other exporting countries. Italy experienced difficulties in its Algerian exports since the Euro/US Dollar exchange rate rose to 1.225 (today at 1.217). Despite the tax disadvantage, Ukrainian producers (especially Kryvorizhstal) can offer prices $10 lower in CFR basis than the Italian producers. Currently, export offers are at around Euro 405-410/ton for May shipment. Domestic offers are at around Euro 410-415/ton on actual weight basis ex-works. This week, largely Italian producers prefer to sell to the domestic market and other EU countries as they find better prices than Algeria. The election situation in Italy and 16 working days due to the holidays in April can affect the steel tonnage and output negatively in the market. In CIS countries (especially Ukraine and Russia), the domestic market became active with the betterment in weather conditions. The demand for rebar is strong. Furthermore, they became active in Algerian market again. Export levels for rebars are at around $410-420/ton FOB. The demand is at high levels in the most of the important markets. The situation of the scrap market, which is calm nowadays, will affect the direction of the long products markets.

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