Atlanta, Georgia-based Independent Steel Alliance (ISA) has released its Q2 2026 Rebar Market Sentiment Report, confirming that the US rebar market recovery identified in Q1 2026 is real and accelerating, with independent fabricators positioned for growth after navigating the 2025 downturn.
Favorable market sentiment ratings rose to 25 percent in Q2 2026, up from 0 percent in Q1 2026, marking the first meaningful positive reading since Q1 2025. Forward expectations also surged, with 51.4 percent of fabricators expecting market improvement over the next 90 days, the strongest confidence reading since Q4 2024. Operational metrics also strengthened across the board.
On pricing, domestic mill prices for #5 rebar held in the $46-48/cwt., ($920-960/nt or $1,014-1,058/mt) range, FOB mill Midwest, with regional premiums of $2-4/cwt. ($40-80/nt or $44-48/mt), in Gulf Coast and Southeast markets, and $4-6/cwt ($80-88/nt or $88-132/mt) on the West Coast. Section 232 tariffs at 50 percent continued acting as an effective price umbrella, ISA said, eliminating most foreign competition. The EU's mid-April 2026 decision to raise its own steel import tariffs to 50 percent has further reshaped global trade flows, reducing export outlets for Chinese steel.
Supply conditions improved modestly entering Q2, with domestic mill lead times moderating to 6-10 weeks from the 8-12 week levels seen in Q1. ISA quotes heavy melt scrap prices eased to the $398-405 per metric ton range, down roughly 3 percent from Q1 peak.
US rebar demand reached 1.69 million metric tons in Q1 2026, with Q2 2026 tracking at 1.62 million metric tons through April 25, according to American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) Market Statistics cited in the report.
For the Q3 2026 outlook, ISA's base case calls for stable to modestly softer rebar pricing in the $45-47/cwt. ($900-940/nt or $992-1,036/mt), range, with an upside scenario of $50-52/cwt. ($1,000-1,140/nt or $1,102-1,146/mt), and a downside at potential to $42-45/cwt. ($840-926/nt or $900-992/mt). Iron ore prices are expected to ease into the $95-100 per metric ton range, while scrap is seen holding at $385-400 per metric ton, ISA said.
.jpg)