A combination of factors could lead to a third price increase in the US domestic rebar market, with concerns about prices rising too sharply taking a backseat to overall optimism. December scrap price expectations are still pointing toward an uptrend, while predictions about the preliminary determinations in the trade case against Turkey, Taiwan and Japan due in mid-December are pointing toward prohibitively high margins. Combined with current import rebar offers stable but likely to rise again, US domestic mills are in a strong position to raise rebar prices next month.
As for how much that increase could be, sources tell SteelOrbis that it will be “at least” $1.00 cwt. ($20/nt or $22/mt), or as much as $2.00 cwt. ($40/nt or $44/mt). For now, purchasing activity following the latest price increase is quiet due to the Thanksgiving holiday this week, with US domestic spot prices still in the range of $27.50-$29.50 cwt. ($550-$590/nt or $606-$650/mt) ex-mill.