The billet market in Turkey is slowly reviving in terms of offers and buyers’ reactions, while some suppliers have not yet returned from the holidays or are trying to evaluate the market situation. Import scrap prices have slid recently and the mood is generally not optimistic in terms of a possible rebound in the short term. Still, currently import billet prices are mainly considered to be in a relative equilibrium with scrap prices, although large importers are mainly cautious. Market sources believe that next week the market will gain clarity and that negotiations will be a little more lively.
For now, the import billet prices are more or less in line with the pre-holiday levels, but the number of firm offers is limited. A large ex-Malaysia cargo is rumored to have been sold to Turkey at $455/mt FOB or around $485/mt CFR. However, some sources assume this may be a transaction closed in late December. Another Malaysian cargo, for early February shipment, is on offer at around $480/mt CFR and slightly below, but the buyers are generally slow to place serious bids. Before the holidays, Malaysa was targeting $485-490/mt CFR, which was not quite workable at the time. Indonesian indicative prices have been reported at $470/mt CFR this week, similar to the previous levels.
China has mainly been evaluating the market. “There is a feeling they [Chinese mills] need to see a bit more market movement before taking decisions regarding sales and possible price levels,” a trading source told SteelOrbis. The previous levels for China stood at $470-475/mt CFR, while now there is a feeling that suppliers may go for $460-465/mt CFR. However, no serious talk has been reported.
Ex-Black Sea billet is expected to still be in demand in Turkey due to its shorter lead time and the possibility of shipping in smaller lots compared to Asia. According to sources, Ukraine has not yet decided on volumes and, therefore, prices for February, while the latest deal in late December was closed to Turkey at $500/mt CFR.
No firm offers have been heard from Russia taking into account the holiday period, with only some indications rumored at around $460/mt CFR, in line with the previous levels. Given the dull market activity and the rather pessimistic mood in the air, Turkish buyers are expected to push for $450/mt CFR and below, at least for large lots. However, tonnages for shipment in January and early February, if any, may be sold at higher levels. The SteelOrbis daily reference price for ex-Russia billet to be shipped from the Black Sea has remained stable for now at $440-445/mt FOB. The price will gain more clarity next week once suppliers have fully returned from the holiday.
