After seeing a sharp rise in prices last week following mill-announced US flat steel price increases, US domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have edged up higher while cold rolled coil (CRC) prices have remained steady but firm.
US domestic HRC prices are now in the range of $24.50-$26.50 cwt. ($540-$584/mt or $490-$530/nt) ex-mill, up $0.50 cwt. ($11/mt or $10/nt) in the last week. US domestic CRC prices, meanwhile, are unchanged week-on-week at $34-$36 cwt. ($750-$794/mt or $680-$720/nt) ex-mill.
Additionally, lead times for HRC have extended out from 7-8 weeks to currently 8-10 weeks, while lead times for CRC are unchanged at 9-10 weeks. In comparison, lead times in mid-August were at 3-4 weeks for HRC and 5-7 weeks for CRC.
Sources tell SteelOrbis that there are some concerns in the market that once orders arrive and inventories are replenished, there could be little support for higher prices if demand doesn’t markedly improve. The US automotive market is showing improvement, with new reports of increased sales in August compared to July (up 6 percent), but new auto sales in the US in August were still down 11 percent year-on-year, suggesting demand for flat steel from automotive could continue to lag into Q4.
In the near term, sources expect flat steel prices to remain firm in October if US domestic scrap prices stay afloat—predictions are mixed for next month’s scrap trend, but so far expectations seem to point to a sideways trend “at worst.”