US domestic HRC and CRC prices have stayed mostly neutral, and sources note that while some offers have been heard at slightly higher than the average ranges, for the most part transaction ranges have held steady
Similar to last week, HRC prices are still being heard at $96-$98 cwt, ($2,116-$2,161/mt or $1,920-$1,960/nt) FOB mill, whereas CRC offers are still holding in an average range of $106.00-$109.00 cwt. ($2,337-$2,403/mt or $2,120-$2,180/nt) FOB mill.
Also notable is that traders continue to offer US import HRC from various offshore sources at price points that are at least $20 cwt. ($441/mt or $400/nt) below what US mills are offering.
“A lot of people are still reluctant to predict where the market is going because it’s been such a crazy year,” a source said. “We see the demand to slow down a bit—some companies are lessening production due to supply chain issues, which is preventing them from making the products they need. This thing is starting to look like it’s about to start steadily going down, the big question is how quickly that’s going to happen. I think it’s at the peak, and I think it could tick down to mid-80s by the end of the year.”
And while some believe that the rumored pending busheling scrap buys by Cleveland Cliffs, which some have heard could equate to as much as 10-20% of their overall melt program, may be a strategy to keep busheling scrap prices (and in turn, sheet steel prices) strong, others have pointed out that the spread between busheling scrap and sheet steel prices is “very out of whack,” adding that even if busheling prices stay steady, “there’s more than enough room for sheet prices to come down, and for mills to still make a profit.”
For example, during the first week of January 2021 US HRC prices were trending at $51-$54 cwt. ($1,124-$1,191/mt or $1,020-$1,080/nt), FOB mill; whereas January settled Ohio Valley busheling scrap prices were heard at $480-$500/gt. And while September 2021 settled Ohio Valley busheling scrap prices settled in the range of $600-$610/gt, HRC prices have risen by $25 cwt. ($551/mt or $500/nt), if not more, since the start of the year.