Weekly US flat steel prices continued their recent ascent, with hot-rolled coils finishing the week up another $10/nt, even as reports for March scrap now indicate a growing sideways to lower market sentiment, and data shows steel imports still off sharply from 2025 levels.
While recent weather across much of the US has moderated, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis extreme cold and snow since the end of January reduced inflows into local supply yards, contributing to surging scrap values, now higher for a third straight month. The outlook for March is now called sideways to down, according to an exclusive SteelOrbis weekly survey of scrap market insiders conducted earlier this week.
“We’re seeing a continued sentiment of sideways to lower for March,” said one Midwest steel broker. “We could very well see recent February (scrap) price increases given back in March,” he said. “Mills will push for that,” he added. “while dealers will push for sideways. It’s their best-case scenario given an expectation for better weather and inflows next month.”
The weekly SteelOrbis HRC spot price average price closed the week at $990/nt, ($1,091/mt), or $49.50/cwt., up from $980/nt ($1,080/mt) or $49.00/cwt., one week earlier.
Since the beginning of 2026, when weekly SteelOrbis HRC pricing averaged $910/nt or $45.50/cwt., pricing is up nearly 9 percent, while one year comparisons show HRC spot prices have climbed more than 41 percent from on average $700/nt ($772/mt), or $35.00/cwt.
While actual flat steel imports for February won’t be available for several months due to government data publishing delays, initial flat steel import license requests from the Washington, DC.-based International Trade Administration’s (ITA) US Steel Import Monitor, reveal that February flat steel import licenses requests fell 67.4 percent to a combined 1,400 metric tons (mt), from 4,300 mt recorded during January. Many market analysts accept steel import license data as a solid indicator of actual steel imports.
Insiders tell SteelOrbis a combination of reduced finished steel imports as a result of renewed Section 232 steel tariffs earlier this year, steadily rising US steel plant capacity utilization rates, along with steady increases in scrap pricing which continues to boost mills’ steel production costs, continue to be seen as the key reasons for continued strength in flat steel markets.
Based on a current conservative sideways to lower call for March scrap, US Ohio Valley prime bushing scrap could settle at or below its $30/gt higher February settlement near $445-452/gt ($452-462/mt), while March shredded material could finish near or lower than its $30/gt higher February finish at $445-450/gt ($452-456/mt). In the cut grades, a sideways to lower expectation for P&S scrap near $421-431/gt ($427-437/mt) is likely, following its $20/gt February gain. March HMS, which also rose $20/gt this month, was likely to settle at or a bit lower than its $385-405/gt ($390-410/mt), scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.
In the US Northeast, a current sideways to down March expectation could yield busheling scrap near or below $420-420/gt, following its $30/gt February gains. Shredded scrap, which also rose $30/gt, could finish near or less than $395-405/gt ($400-410/mt), while P&S and HMS grades, which both saw $20/gt February price increases, could finish near or less than $350-360/gt ($355-365/mt), and $365-380/gt ($370-385/mt), respectively.
In the cold rolled markets, current spot pricing saw a small $3/nt increase, following last week’s sizable $32/nt gain to on average $1,135/nt ($1,251/mt), or $56.75/cwt. Based on another $10/nt increase for HRC pricing and a small $3/nt rise in the CRC weekly assessment, the current spread between the two key steel grades fell slightly on the week, settling Feb. 20 at $145/nt or $7.25/cwt., off from $152/nt or $7.60/cwt., one week earlier.
In the coated steel markets, the SteelOrbis hot-dipped galvanized base supply prices are assessed at $1,090/nt ($1,201/mt) or $54.50/cwt/., up from $1,080/nt ($1,191/mt), or $54.00/cwt., seven days ago.
On the domestic mill pricing side, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor raised its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for flat-rolled coils for a fifth time seven weeks by another $5/nt to $980/nt ($1,080/mt), or $49.00/cwt. Since the end of October, when CSP prices started their recent advance following an eight-week period of stability at $875/nt, the Nucor CSP has increased by a full 12 percent. Nucor‘s California Steel Industries (CSI) price rose another $5/nt on the week to $1,030/nt ($1,135/mt), or $51.50/cwt.