Russian HRC producers, while still suffering from low demand domestically and a rather negative outlook regarding a possible domestic price rebound, have received a chance to slightly improve their positions on exports. They have been trying to take advantage of the rising freight rates caused by the war in the Middle East and the consequent caution of buyers in Turkey, North Africa, Lebanon and Syria to deal for ex-Asia materials. Ex-China HRC delivered prices to this region have risen by at least $20-30/mt due to the war-related surge in international freight rates.
Currently, Russian mills are offering for April and May shipments depending on the supplier. Sanctioned HRC from the Black Sea is now priced at $465/mt FOB for April shipment, up $5/mt over the past week. The evaluated price for the regular buyers in the MENA region is at around $490-495/mt CFR, SteelOrbis understands, while to Turkey the level should be at $485-490/mt CFR. The non-sanctioned Russian HRC mill is in the market with $535-540/mt CFR Turkey for May shipments or around $510-515/mt FOB Black Sea, up from $525/mt CFR seen last week. The latest HRC offers from China to Turkey stood at $530-545/mt CFR.
Another sanctioned Russian HRC supplier has increased its offers by $10-15/mt over the past week to $490-495/mt CFR Turkey and MENA for May shipment cargoes. The supplier’s price is estimated at around $440-450/mt FOB Baltic Sea. “Russia has a good chance of selling now and they might receive a premium in their prices since all ex-Asia cargoes are currently are well above $500/mt CFR,” a trader told SteelOrbis.
In the domestic market, HR sheet prices for April production have been largely rolled over in Russia at RUB 56,500-58,000/mt CPT or $590-605/mt CPT based onb $1 = RUB 78.47. Despite the fact that local prices in Russia are much higher than the export prices, the volume of sales is quite low, causing Russian mills to remain active in overseas destinations. “Personally, I do not foresee any recovery in demand until the summer as the consuming industries are in quite a difficult position and the financial situation in the country is making it worse day by day,” a local source told SteelOrbis.
Prices in the local currency exclude 22 percent VAT.