Nucor and Cleveland Cliffs today announced yet another flat rolled steel price increase, with both mills indicating they’ve set a new, $50 cwt. ($1,102/mt or $1,000/nt) for US domestic hot rolled coil. Today’s increase comes just 8 days after both steelmakers announced plans to establish a new minimum HRC base price of $45 cwt. ($992/mt or $900/nt).
As of late last week, US HRC spot market prices were being heard at approximately $39.50-$41.50 cwt. ($871-$915/mt or $790-$830/mt), FOB mill.
Perhaps coincidentally, today’s announcement comes hours after news that Turkish import HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices have begun to surge, with ex-UK, ex-Denmark, and ex-Estonia cargoes being sold at roughly $428-$430/mt CFR. Rumors that US sellers are now targeting sales prices of $440/mt CFR for scrap cargoes to Turkey have already begun to permeate the marketplace. In contrast, the most recent ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 to Turkey was transacted late last week at $420.50/mt CFR.
Scrap market sources say this “absolutely” has the potential to change the anticipated March trajectory for US scrap prices, from sideways to strong sideway to “an assured strong sideways.”
Some flat rolled steel market players speculate that today’s price increase announcement could “potentially” be due to mills’ expectation of higher US scrap prices in March.
Others have said that the increase could be due to “significantly lessened” import tonnages and mills’ lagging capacity utilization rates, “both of which seem to be giving mills some pricing power- regardless of whether buyers feel that $45-$50 cwt. ($992-$1,102/mt or $900-$1,000/nt) hot rolled coil is where the market should be.”
Additional clarity with regard to both HRC and scrap prices is anticipated to be available by the end of the week. If today’s price increase is accepted. this would mark the first-time prices US HRC prices have reached $50 cwt. since late-June 2022.