This week has continued to be weak in terms of hot rolled coil (HRC) demand and consequently pricing in Europe, with offers from mills and traders falling by around €20/mt week on week. Besides, prices for imported HRC have been also reported at lower levels this week, with a few deals reported to have been signed for ex-India HRC with additional discounts, according to sources.
More specifically, domestic HRC offers from European mills have been estimated at €570-600/mt ex-works for October delivery, against €590-600/mt ex-works last week, with the lower end of the range corresponding to offers in Italy at around €570-580/mt ex-works, down by €10-20/mt week on week, while offers from mills in the north of Europe have settled at €580-600/mt ex-works, down by €10/mt on the lower end of the range over the past week.
Meanwhile, tradable HRC offers have been estimated at around €560/mt ex-works and even slightly below both in Italy and in northern Europe, down by €20-30/mt week on week. “Prices have been falling amid low demand and the situation may remain pessimistic as mills are unlikely to cut production this year,” a market insider said.
In the meantime, offers for import HRC have been voiced at €530-580/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, against €540-590/mt CFR last week. Notably, although trade has remained sluggish in Europe, market insiders have reported a few deals for around 20,000 mt in total of ex-India HRC signed at $600-610/mt CFR, which translates to around €545-555/mt CFR. Although most market insiders believe that sales for ex-India HRC are risky as the safeguard quota for ex-India HRC is almost exhausted, other believe more deals will be heard this month, since as of September 12 65,900 mt could still be booked in Europe in the third quarter, out of a total third quarter quota of 301,703 mt, according to the official data from the European Commission’s Taxation and Customs Union. “What will enter the EU in 2025 from India, Vietnam, Japan and Egypt will face a high risk of retroactive duty. We guess India is now pushing tons to anticipate this,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.
At the same time, offers directly from Asian mills, including those from Vietnam and Indonesia, have been reported at €540-545/mt CFR southern Europe, while the same materials from traders have been offered at around €570-580/mt CFR. Furthermore, offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been voiced at €550/mt CFR, including duty, down by €10-30/mt week on week. “Turkey has only 34,306 mt left free for the third quarter, meaning they [Turkish suppliers] have already sold 440,000 mt during July-September, so those huge tons lost from Vietnam, Japan and Egypt have been already compensated for by Turkey,” a market insider said.
Furthermore, according to European buyers, suppliers from China, Australia and Indonesia will now have more space. Offers for ex-China HRC have been voiced at €530-550/mt CFR Italy, including duty, directly from mills, while prices for ex-China HRC through traders are at around €580/mt CFR, duty included.
