Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have come under growing pressure over the past week, as suppliers have increasingly shifted toward more aggressive export negotiations amid softening domestic demand and intensifying competition in key overseas destinations. While official offer levels have largely remained stable, market sources reported that several major Indian mills have been willing to provide discounts, particularly in the GCC and Vietnam, in an effort to secure orders and maintain competitiveness against active Chinese suppliers.
More specifically, ex-India HRC prices have been officially maintained at $550-560/mt FOB for the Middle East. But at least three large mills said they are in “active sales pitches” at price ranging at $520-540/mt FOB to maintain competitiveness amid a rising number of offers flowing into Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. No detailed offers in the GCC have been disclosed so far, though market sources report ongoing negotiations for a total volume of at least 50,000 mt, with contracts expected to be finalized in the coming weeks for June-July shipment. According to market insiders, optimism on sales has also been based on alternative delivery solutions that have “possibly worked out as alternate shipping corridors to the war-affected Strait of Hormuz”.
An official with a large eastern India-based steel mill, not currently involved in overseas sales said, “buyers in the Middle East are more inclined to commit to trades. But with sellers from China also very active in the region, Indian sellers will need to be very competitive. We think workable prices will be $520-530/mt FOB.”
“Even though firm deals are yet to be struck, there is cautious optimism on the export front offering better opportunities. Buyers are still cautious, but exports offer options for local mills when domestic demand is softening,” a Tata Steel Limited affiliate told SteelOrbis.
“The real challenge is how much sellers can adjust offers to arrive at a sales contract at a time when domestic production costs are rising. The cost-benefit issues are challenging when finalizing a deal,” he added.
Meanwhile, offers submitted in Europe have been voiced at $610-620/mt FOB, which translates to around $690-700/mt CFR, down by $10-20/mt week on week, with a deal for around 20,000-30,000 mt reported to have been signed at $690/mt CFR southern Europe. At the same time, it is worth noting that by mid-May Indian suppliers have already fully utilized their April-June 2026 quota of 225,305 mt, meaning that any new bookings are expected to fall under the next quota period.
Furthermore, while indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been estimated at $580-585/mt CFR, sources reported that a number of Indian suppliers have been showing willingness to lower their prices to secure orders in Vietnam, with possible deal levels estimated at around $560-565/mt CFR, which would translate to an effective HRC FOB price of approximately $530-535/mt.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $520-620/mt FOB, compared to $540-640/mt FOB last week, amid negotiations of discounted sales reported in the Middle East at the lower end of the range, while deal prices in Europe and Vietnam have been estimated to be at least $10/mt lower this week as well.
