This week, European hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have continued to face downward pressure due to weak demand and oversupply, with buyers indicating room for further price reductions. Meanwhile, mills have raised concerns over rising costs, while service centers and distributors have hesitated to acquire new volumes, citing insufficient orders from end-users.
More specifically, indictive offers from mills for local HRC in northern Europe have been estimated at €560-580/mt ex-works, the same as last week, though tradable prices have declined by €5-10/mt week on week to €540-550/mt ex-works. “€540 ex-works basis is the recent booking price in northern Europe, and there have been rumours of deals at €25-30/mt lower,” a market insider told SteelOrbis. Meanwhile, offers from mills in Italy have been estimated at around €550-560/mt ex-works, against €570-580/mt ex-works last week, while workable prices have settled at €540/mt ex-works, down by €10/mt week on week.
“With no signs of a recovery in end-user demand, any attempt to increase prices will be difficult. Mills are facing a tough reality: there is no opportunity to raise [HRC] prices because the demand just isn't there,” a German-based trader told SteelOrbis.
In addition, buyers remained skeptical about whether HRC prices have reached their lowest point, opting to adopt a wait-and-see approach amid the declining market conditions. Some market participants have speculated that HRC prices may bottom out between October and November and that, after closing their order books for 2024, European mills may attempt to raise prices for the first quarter of 2025.
In the import segment, trade has remained limited amid slow demand and the high risks related to the safeguard duty and the antidumping investigation against HRC from Vietnam, Japan, Egypt and Taiwan. Besides, according to market insiders, the latest news that EUROFER is pressing the EU to impose a blanket import duty and is seeking the registration of all steel facing dumping investigations is having a hugely negative impact on the import trade, which sooner or later should allow the Europeans to push up their prices.
Import offers for HRC have been estimated at €525-545/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, versus €530-560/mt CFR last week. The lower end of the range corresponds to offers for ex-Vietnam HRC at €525/mt CFR, down by €5/mt over the past week, while offers for ex-India HRC have been voiced at $590-600/mt CFR, which translates to around €528-538/mt CFR. Offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been estimated at €540-545/mt CFR.
