As reported previously, the increasing HRC price trend lost its momentum in the EU entering the month of October. However, domestic prices have inched up slightly in the past week and are now expected to trend sideways or indicate a gradual further increase during the remainder of the year, supported by good order books at local producers and the lack of import offers. HRC base prices are now at €480-490/mt in the Italian market, against last week's €470-490/mt levels, both ex-works. At the same time, prices have increased from €485-500/mt to €490-500/mt in northern Europe, ex-works.
Local buyers have been resisting significant price increases in the past few weeks, although mills have been pushing their offers up at the same time, to a maximum of €540/mt ex-works in northern Europe, as they claim to be mostly sold out until December, especially in the north. The positive sentiment among European flat steel producers has also been supported by the news that in September this year new car registrations increased year on year in the EU for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic. However, some sources still doubt that demand from the automotive sector, which has been good in past months, will remain at current levels in the coming period. Meanwhile, local supply is still reduced as only a few steel plants have been restarted in Europe so far, while ArcelorMittal's Krakow blast furnace has been closed permanently, and plants that have been reactivated are not producing at high rates yet.
As mentioned, EU-based HRC suppliers are strongly supported by the lack of competitive import offers, which is the result of both the EU safeguard measures on steel imports and the ongoing antidumping investigation against ex-Turkey HRC, which could lead to retroactive measures from mid-October onwards. Import offers have declined slightly in the past week - from €475-495/mt to €470-490/mt CFR Italy - but buyers remain cautious.