While most EU market players are yet to come back from the Christmas and New Year holidays, the market players surveyed by SteelOrbis believe domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) prices will keep rising in the first quarter this year. The price range in the EU market has remained stable during the holidays, standing at €650-680/mt ex-works. However, most market insiders expect new offers to reach €700/mt ex-works when mills will return from their holidays.
At the same time, according to Italian sources, there is talk that Italian producers may increase prices by more than €100/mt in the coming months. “If EU mills are clever, they will increase prices step by step, like €20/mt every two weeks and will close orders in the meantime. But if they hike offers by €100/mt, they will scare the market that will buy import HRC,” a market insider told SteelOrbis, adding, “Demand is not good enough to accept crazy prices, though anyway everyone is expecting a price increase next week.”
Meanwhile, import activities have remained subdued given the absence of buyers during the holidays. Thus, only occasional offers have been reported this week. In particular, offers for ex-India HRC have been voiced at $670-680/mt CFR southern Europe (around €632-640/mt CFR), the same as two weeks ago. However, according to sources, Indian HRC prices are likely to increase in the short run, and some expect them to be as high as $670/mt FOB, which translates to around €680/mt CFR southern Europe. Besides, several offers from South Korean mills have been heard at €640/mt CFR Italy, the same as two weeks ago.