This week, signs of falling prices have emerged in the local HRC market in northern Europe given the low levels of restocking affected by slow demand, and the lack of buyer confidence in the sustainability of high offers from mills. At the same time, although domestic prices have remained relatively unchanged in Italy, market insiders have also been discussing the possibility of some price drop in the short run given sluggish demand and the softening in HRC import prices.
According to sources, although one of the mills in northern Europe is still offering its HRC at €780/mt ex-works, domestic offers from most mills in Germany have decreased to €745-770/mt ex-works for April delivery, depending on the supplier, against €760-800/mt ex-works last week. At the same time, the workable prices have settled at a maximum of €750-760/mt ex-works while, according to sources, business activity has been limited, with mainly small tonnages sold for back-to-back trading.
Meanwhile, offers from Italian mills have remained relatively unchanged at €765-770/mt ex-works for March-April delivery. However, the tradable prices have been estimated at €740-750/mt ex-works, against €750-760/mt ex-works last week.
At the same time, despite the recent drop in local offers, most HRC sellers are still convinced there will be no sharp decline in prices for HRC at least in the first quarter of 2024, given the lack of import options due to safeguard-related risks and further complications caused by the Red Sea crisis.
In the meantime, import HRC prices have been lacking clarity this week since, while several buyers in Spain have reported fresh deals for ex-India and ex-Vietnam HRC, 10,000 mt each, at €680/mt CFR through traders, offers for the same origin coils have been voiced in Italy at €650-660/mt CFR for ex-India HRC and at €640-650/mt CFR ex-Vietnam, down by around €20/mt week on week. Furthermore, offers for other Asian origin HRC, including those from Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, have been voiced at €650-660/mt CFR in Italy, down by €10/mt week on week, though several offers for ex-Taiwan HRC through traders are still voiced in Spain at €680/mt CFR, including 90-day delivery. Indicative offers for ex-Turkey HRC have remained at around €700-720/mt CFR, including duty, while offers for ex-Egypt HRC have been assessed at €705/mt CFR Spain, through traders.
Ex-Asia HRC offers directly from mills in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan to northern Europe have been estimated at around €660-670/mnt CFR Antwerp, down by €10/mt over the past week, though only limited bookings are reported to have been done as most buyers refrain from imports due to the exhaustion of the quarterly EU import quotas.
