US domestic HRC and CRC spot prices have not changed week-on-week, leading many to wonder if the market has finally reached its peak. Since June, monthly price increase amounts for HRC in particular have reduced, from up-$7.00 cwt. ($154/mt or $140/nt) between June 2 and July 7, up $5.85 cwt. ($129/mt or $117/nt) between July 7 and August 4, to up only $2.75 cwt. ($61/mt or $55/nt) between August 4 and September 1.
Additionally, the price spread between domestic flat steel and import offers has widened, with HRC imports getting closer to $75.00 cwt. ($1,654/mt or $1,500/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, and CRC imports hovering around $80.00 cwt. ($1,764/mt or $1,600/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports. For the past three months, HRC and CRC import arrivals have hit the highest levels they’ve been all year.
Sources point out that planned mill outages in the US are still the wildcard when it comes to market direction. The outages could restrict supply enough to prevent prices from sliding, or even remove enough tons from the market to force spot prices higher. However, that trend could shift—perhaps drastically—when new capacity comes online before the end of the year.
For now, US flats prices remain unchanged week-on-week, in the range of $95.00-$97.00 cwt. ($2,094-$2,138/mt or $1,900-$1,940/nt) ex-mill for HRC, and $106.00-$109.00 cwt. ($2,337-$2,403/mt or $2,120-$2,180/nt) ex-mill for CRC.