The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has shown a mixed but generally firmer tone this week, although underlying demand remains inconsistent across regions and continues to cap upward momentum. In Asia, ex-China HRC prices have moved higher on improved sentiment and firmer offers, yet buyers have remained cautious, actively pushing for discounts and resisting higher levels. A similar pattern has been observed in Vietnam, where import prices have strengthened amid tightening supply and shifting trade flows, but actual trading activity has stayed extremely slow, reflecting limited purchasing appetite.
In India, export activity has largely stalled despite mills attempting to support prices on the back of elevated costs. Buyers have shown clear resistance to these increases, which has also been reflected in the domestic market, where local HRC prices have edged down. Meanwhile, in Turkey, some import bookings have been reported, providing mild support to the market and contributing to a slight uptick in domestic prices, although overall demand conditions remain far from robust. Across the Middle East, the GCC market has displayed only selective buying interest, with ongoing route restrictions continuing to disrupt normal trade flows and limit transaction volumes. In Europe, HRC prices have remained broadly stable, as sufficient stock levels and subdued import activity have balanced out any upward pressure from mills, leaving limited room for price increases.
Ex-China HRC export prices have moved up further over the past week, supported by firmer raw material costs and a gradual increase in offers from major mills. However, overall trading activity has remained uneven, with deals limited by cautious buyer sentiment and shifting demand across key destinations, while geopolitical uncertainties and freight-related challenges continue to reshape traditional trade flows. More specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $500-515/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $507.5/mt FOB, up by $10/mt week on week. Besides, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced at around $490/mt FOB and above, up by at least $8/mt over the past week. Meanwhile, offers from Chinese traders have been estimated at $485-495/mt FOB, versus $483-495/mt FOB last week. According to sources, a deal for around 3,000-5,000 mt of ex-China Q235 HRC is reported to have been done in North Africa at $487/mt FOB at the end of last week. Meanwhile, this week, ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC offers in Vietnam have remained extremely rare, with indicative offers with VAT for June-July shipments voiced at $520-525/mt CFR, up by $10-20/mt week on week. Offers for ex-Chinese Q195 HRC through traders to Turkey have been voiced at $542-550/mt CFR, while offers from first-tier mills have been estimated at $557-558/mt CFR. However, according to sources, a deal for around 50,000 mt of ex-China HRC is reported to have been signed through a trader at around $535-537/mt CFR Turkey, which translates to around $485-487/mt FOB.
Vietnam’s import HRC market has continued to show a firmer trend over the past week, supported by tightening supply and shifting trade flows, although trading activity has remained extremely subdued. Indicative offers for ex-China Q235 HRC in Vietnam have been reported at $520-525/mt CFR for June shipment, versus 510-515/mt CFR week, though overall availability remains constrained. According to sources, a deal for 10,000 mt of ex-China Q195 HRC has been signed at $500/mt CFR for May shipment this week. Besides, another deal for 10,000 mt of SPHC picked and oiled has been signed at $575/mt CFR for June shipment. Meanwhile, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam has risen to $585-590/mt CFR, compared to $560-600/mt CFR last week, reflecting the overall upward pressure driven by limited supply and firmer offers from alternative origins.
Ex-India HRC prices have remained relatively stable over the past week, with a slight upward bias driven by rising costs. However, trade activity has been largely stalled due to limited export allocations from mills, which remain comfortable with their domestic sales, and since cautious buyers have been unwilling to take on the risks associated with the prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. More specifically, ex-India HRC prices have been estimated at around $530/mt FOB for the Middle East, up from $520-530/mt FOB last week, with a few offers heard at even higher levels around $550/mt FOB. Meanwhile, offers to Europe have remained at $600-620/mt FOB, the same as last week, but ongoing uncertainties around the CBAM certification process, along with the additional levy that buyers must pay, have continued to slow down sales to the region.
At the same time, according to sources, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been reported at around $600-610/mt CFR, which translates to around $580/mt FOB, versus a deal price at $560/mt CFR reported last week. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has remained at $530-620/mt FOB, up by $10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
In Turkey, one of the domestic HRC producers has increased its domestic offer by $10/mt to $660/mt ex-works for July deliveries, while other producers have remained at $635-650/mt ex-works for June-July material. Export offers are mainly at $630-640/mt FOB, stable over the week, while a medium sized lot has been reportedly traded to southern EU at $620-625/mt FOB. Import HRC offers from China have settled mainly at $550-555/mt CFR for June shipment, while the latest deal was closed at around $535-537/mt CFR. Ex-Malaysia price stood at $620-625/mt CFR, while Egypt has not been in the market recently, focusing on the domestic sales. The non-sanctioned HRC producer in Russia has traded around 60,000 mt of June shipment HRC to Turkey at $570-575/mt CFR and up to $580/mt CFR.
Russian HRC producers have remained active on exports and, according to sources, all three of them have closed sales for June and May shipments, depending on the supplier. One of the sanctioned mills has closed last sales for June shipments at $520-525/mt CFR MENA region, up from around $505-515/mt CFR at the beginning of the round. The mill overall sold 90,000 mt at the price equivalent of $450-465/mt FOB Baltic region. Another sanctioned mill has chosen to reorient its focus on Iranian market where there has been quite lively demand considering the stoppage of Mobarakeh Steel Company. The mill has been able to get $520/mt FOB on the Caspian Sea, which is much higher than the workable level on the Black Sea region. According to sources, the mill has traded around 50,000 mt for May and early June shipments. The non-sanctioned mill, as stated above, has traded around 60,000 mt of June shipment HRC to Turkey at around $540-550/mt FOB Black Sea. The local HRS prices in Russia are mainly at RUB 56,000/mt ($608/mt) CPT.
In North Africa, an Algerian mill has been concentrating on sales to the EU, preferring to work with every client individually. According to sources, the latest deals have been closed this week for up to 10,000 mt at $735/mt FOB for June shipment, up from $720/mt FOB sales closed around three weeks ago. The domestic HRC price in Algeria is now at around $630/mt or around DZD 99,000/mt ex-works. An Egyptian mill is currently staying away from the active exports while selling in the domestic market at EGP 39,000/mt ($650/mt) ex-works. Import offers for HRC from China have been reported at $550-555/mt CFR Egypt and $565-570/mt CFR Algeria, while the latest indications from Russia stood at $520-525/mt CFR for the sanctioned material.
In the GCC, HRC activity continues to move at a restrained pace, not due to a lack of demand but largely as a result of ongoing limitations in workable shipping routes, with buyers showing willingness to purchase yet proceeding only when viable logistics options are secured. This has led to a fragmented trading environment, where transactions are carried out selectively through accessible channels rather than across the broader market, while the UAE remains the most affected by route constraints linked to the Strait of Hormuz, and relatively better engagement is observed in Saudi Arabia alongside emerging interest in Oman. Within this context, Chinese HRC continues to be heard at around $550/mt CFR UAE for May shipment without confirmed deals, while a cargo of around 10,000 mt has been sold to Oman at $560/mt CFR Sohar, highlighting that trade is still possible through workable routes. In Saudi Arabia, 1.2 mm HRC offers are at $610-615/mt CFR, with some limited sales heard. Indian suppliers have maintained their offers at $520-530/mt FOB, though buying interest remains weak. Although no fresh Russian offers are reported to the GCC, levels of $520-525/mt CFR are heard in the wider MENA region, with some limited sales.
European HRC prices have remained under pressure over the past week, with market participants pushing back against higher July-delivery offers, which have been widely viewed as unrealistic at €750/mt delivered and above. Buyers have continued to report ample availability, supported by high stock levels and a steady flow of imports, limiting any immediate upside. While some market shifts are anticipated from July, sentiment remains cautious, with little scope seen for significant price increases in the near term. More specifically, HRC prices from mills in northern Europe have been reported at €720-730/mt ex-works for June delivery, the same as last week, with a number of mills still targeting higher offers for July delivery. At the same time, the tradable price levels have settled at €700-720/mt ex-works, the same as last week. In Italy, offers from mills have remained at €700-710/mt ex-works for June delivery. Meanwhile, the tradable price levels are estimated at €690-700/mt ex-works, the same as last week.
As for the import segment, indicative offer prices for HRC have remained at €600-690/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range corresponding to indicative offers from India. However, according to sources, an offer at a lower level has been reported this week for ex-Indonesia HRC at €580/mt CFR for July shipment. At the same time, offers for via traders on DDP basis, including CBAM-related costs, have been reported at €700-730/mt DDP southern Europe. Offers for ex-Algeria HRC heard at €725-730/mt DDP, the same as last week, with a deal reportedly signed at above mentioned level, according to sources.