Market participants across regions have noted that seasonal slowdowns, combined with macroeconomic uncertainties, continue to cap demand, leaving sentiment cautiously optimistic for a modest pickup for hot rolled coil (HRC) prices once post-summer demand returns. In Asia, ex-China HRC offers have edged up slightly from mills, though export sentiment has stayed cautious as buyers have remained selective. Ex-India HRC prices have held steady, with sellers maintaining optimism despite limited deal activity. In Vietnam, the import market has stayed quiet as buyers have held back amid the recent price volatility. However, sentiment in the local market has improved after major producers Hoa Phat and Formosa Ha Tinh (FHS) each raised their domestic HRC prices compared to July, aligning their strategies to support margins. FHS’ move mirrored Hoa Phat’s earlier increase, though both mills continue to face competition from more active Japanese and Indonesian suppliers, alongside reduced Chinese sales to Vietnam. In Turkey, shorter lead times have encouraged some bookings, but Chinese offers to the market have remained high. In the Middle East, Emirati buyers have delayed HRC import decisions, citing elevated prices and seasonally slower demand. Meanwhile, the European market has remained muted under the weight of the summer lull, with limited spot transactions taking place despite ArcelorMittal’s plans to lift prices in the coming weeks.
Ex-China HRC offers from major mills and traders have edged up, while tradable prices have remained relatively stable. At the same time, according to most market insiders, “the export market has remained difficult to assess”, but most mills have been aiming for an HRC base price at around $490/mt FOB.
Specifically, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have moved to $490-495/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $492.5/mt FOB, up by $7.5/mt week on week. Meanwhile, smaller mills have been offering their HRC at around $480-490/mt FOB compared to $480/mt FOB last week, though occasional offers from small non-VAT Chinese mills are still voiced at lower levels of around $475/mt FOB, the same as last week, according to sources. Meanwhile, the tradable price for ex-China HRC from traders has settled at $475-485/mt FOB, depending on the destination, the same as last week. In particular, according to sources, ex-China Q235 HRC in Vietnam stands at $487-490/mt CFR. Besides, Chinese offers for Q195 HRC in Turkey have settled at $503-515/mt CFR, versus $500-520/mt CFR last week and $503-515/mt CFR at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, most offers for Q235 HRC in the Middle East have been voiced at $500-510/mt CFR UAE, mainly the same as last week.
Ex-India HRC prices have been relatively stable over the past week in the global markets, with sellers maintaining optimism amid stronger global trends and increased bidding activity, although confirmed deals remain scarce.
More specifically, ex-India offers have been voiced at around $510-520/mt FOB, the same as last week, for the Middle East, and have settled at $545-550/mt FOB for Europe. According to sources, Indian mills have been offering their materials at $540–550/mt CFR for the Middle East, the same as last week.
In the meantime, offers for ex-India HRC have been voiced at $595-600/mt CFR Europe, up by $5/mt week on week, with a deal for around 10,000 mt reported to have been signed at the end of last week at the abovementioned level in northern Europe. According to sources, despite the holiday slowdown in Europe, sellers remain upbeat, anticipating a rebound in prices after the holidays.
In Vietnam, local HRC producer Hoa Phat Group has announced new local HRC prices for September shipment, increasing them by around $15/mt from the levels announced on July 1 to $517-518/mt CIF levels, while another local producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel has increased its new prices for domestic buyers by $10/mt month on month to $507-517/mt CIF, depending on the order size. As for the import market in Vietnam, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has remained at the same level as at the beginning of this week at $505/mt CFR, but is up by $5/mt CFR week on week. Meanwhile, offers for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC, which are not subject to antidumping duty, have been reported at $487-490/mt CFR for August shipment, down by $5/mt week on week.
HRC pricing has remained high in Turkey this week and, in fact, some of the suppliers have increased their offers further, though with not much positive feedback from buyers. Current local HRC prices are at $555-565/mt and up to $570/mt ex-works officially, but buyers expect $5-10/mt discounts to be still applicable. Export offers have been at $530-550/mt FOB and above through most of the week, but by the end of the week the level of $530/mt FOB is not considered to be available. EU demand has diminished due to the summer holidays but some orders are still heard, sources report.
Import HRC offers from China have settled at $515-520/mt CFR by the end of the week, with rare bids at $490/mt CFR, but for an extended payment term. Overall, buyers are not considering the current Chinese prices as they are too high compared to domestic levels and cargoes are also available for November deliveries. Import offers from Egypt are at $555/mt CFR for September shipments, in line with the latest deal for around 10,000 mt. Some interest has been seen in Russian material - a sanctioned mill succeeded in selling 20,000 mt at $470/mt CFR, while a non-sanctioned mill closed deals for 15,000-20,000 mt at $510-515/mt CFR and is still in the market with the same offer levels.
In the UAE, this week, Emirati buyers have adopted a cautious approach, resulting in a slowdown in import activities over the past week. This trend is primarily attributed to elevated price levels and seasonally weaker demand. Meanwhile, despite the majority of suppliers maintaining stable prices, Chinese offers have exhibited a slight softening. This has led buyers to anticipate potential price declines in the coming weeks. According to reports, SS400 grade HRC offers from China for end-of-August and September shipments have been quoted at $500-510/mt CFR, a marginal decrease from $510-520/mt CFR in the previous week. However, lower offers mainly from non-VAT sources remain available at approximately $495/mt CFR. On the other hand, offers from Japanese suppliers have followed a trend of price stabilization, with levels heard at around $500-510/mt CFR for October shipments to the UAE. Similarly, Indian suppliers have maintained stable offers at the upper end of the market. However, Emirati buyers currently view these as uncompetitive, given the prevailing market dynamics. Current offers are reported at $540-550/mt CFR for September shipments.
The European HRC market has remained largely stagnant this week, with trading activity subdued in line with seasonal trends. Domestic HRC prices are mostly unchanged, showing only a marginal upward movement after leading producer ArcelorMittal announced its intention to raise prices by €20/mt for October delivery to €610/mt ex-works. At the same time, market participants have reported limited spot demand, with buyers largely adopting a wait-and-see approach amid uncertain consumption trends and stable inventory levels. Most local HRC prices from mills in northern Europe, mainly for October delivery, have been estimated at €580-590/mt ex-works, compared to €580/mt ex-works last week, while the tradable price level has settled at €560-570/mt ex-works levels, up by €10/mt week on week. Meanwhile, in Italy, indicative offers from mills have been estimated at €550-570/mt ex-works, for September and October deliveries, the same as last week. However, according to sources, customers still been aiming for €525-530/mt ex-works, the same as last week. Import offers have continued to edge higher, reflecting firming global prices, but concluded deals have been scarce. Most successful transactions were closed at competitive or discounted prices, as buyers remained reluctant to commit to higher-priced material in the current market environment, also citing concerns over the potential cost implications of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). According to sources, a deal for around 80,000 mt of ex-Indonesia HRC was reported to have been signed at the end of last week at around $550/mt CFR Italy, which translates to around €475/mt CFR. Besides, offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been voiced at €510-520/mt CFR southern Europe, duty included, compared to €500-520/mt CFR last week. Offers for ex-Algeria HRC have settled at €520/mt CFR, up by €5/mt week on week.