The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has been largely stable this week, with sentiment capped by weak downstream demand and fluctuating futures prices in China. Ex-China HRC prices have showed limited movement, as the continuous fluctuations of Chinese futures have kept weighing on buyer confidence, offsetting any support from reduced export availability. Vietnam’s HRC import market has adjusted to the tightening supply of Chinese material, following reduced export volumes. Despite this shift, prices have remained mostly stable, with buyers adopting a cautious stance amid ongoing demand uncertainty. Besides, ex-India HRC prices have also held steady, reflecting subdued trading activity. Market participation has remained limited, though with buyers in the GCC continuing to favor Indian-origin material. However, stable offers and a lack of urgency from end-users in the UAE have restrained the overall import momentum. In Turkey, flat steel spot prices have remained stable despite firmer scrap trends, as mills have struggled to pass on higher input costs to customers. Meanwhile, in Europe, ArcelorMittal has tested higher domestic HRC prices across the region. However, market sources have been questioning the sustainability of the increase, citing muted demand and limited spot activity, which have continued to cap further upward movement.
Ex-China HRC export prices have remained relatively stable over the past week, although lower HRC futures prices have added mild downward pressure. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $470-485/mt FOB, compared to $475-480/mt FOB last week, though with a midpoint at $477.5/mt FOB, the same as last week. However, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced mainly at $465-475/mt CFR, versus $470-475/mt FOB last week, though their business activity is still paused as most of these mills had previously been selling material without VAT. At the same time, offers from Chinese traders have been voiced at $460-470/mt FOB, the same as last week, with occasional deal prices voiced mainly at $460-465/mt FOB levels. According to sources, export offers have generally stayed firm despite subdued demand, as sellers continue to test buying interest both domestically and overseas ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, with shipment scheduling and delivery adjustments ongoing. In the domestic market, prices have edged down only slightly, though a fresh wave of cold weather across parts of China is expected to weigh on HRC demand. As of January 23, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,305/mt ($472/mt), decreasing by RMB 10/mt ($1.4/mt) since January 16, while increasing by 0.52 percent compared to the previous trading day, January 22.
Vietnam’s import HRC market has continued to see reduced activity from Chinese suppliers over the past week amid the implementation of export licensing requirements and the continued impact of antidumping duties. Many Chinese traders who had previously supplied non-VAT material have withdrawn from the Vietnamese market, resulting in a sharp decline in available offers for standard commercial grades, like Q235. As a result, supply of these grades has increasingly shifted toward domestic producers as well as alternative import sources, particularly India. The latest indicative offers for ex-China Q235 HRC are reported at $485-490/mt CFR for February shipment, mainly the same as last week. However, according to sources, these price levels have been mainly indicative, as most Chinese traders have stopped offering both Q235 and even Q195 HRC, as well as SAE1006 HRC, due to antidumping duty. At the same time, other foreign suppliers have been offering SAE1006 HRC in the range of $487-505/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week. According to sources, offers for ex-India SAE1006/SS400 HRC have settled at $487-493/mt CFR for late March-April shipment, though lower offers at $484-485/mt CFR for late March shipment have also been circulating in the market. The SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has settled at $484-490/mt CFR, versus $488-490/mt CFR last week.
In India, HRC export prices have remained largely stable across key destinations over the past week, though trading activity has been muted amid cautious buyer sentiments. Ex-India HRC offers are stable in the range of $470-475/mt FOB in the Middle East but trade activity against these offers has remained mainly silent. In particular, most offers for ex-India HRC are at $495-500/mt CFR UAE, compared to deal prices at $490-495/mt CFR last week. According to sources, while no fresh deals have been reported in the UAE this week so far, a deal for ex-India HRC has been signed at around $500/mt CFR Oman. The market focus has also increasingly shifted toward higher-grade and value-added products, as mills and distributors explore opportunities to offset pressure in the commodity-grade HRC segment. Furthermore, this week offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $487-490/mt CFR, the same as last week, which translates to around $470/mt FOB. However, according to sources, Vietnamese customers still believe lower prices or around $485/mt CFR are possible to achieve in new deals through traders. At the same time, according to officials at two mills, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have remained rare. Indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Europe have been voiced at $570-575/mt CFR, the same as last week, which translates to around $520/mt FOB. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has settled at $470-520/mt FOB, versus $467-520/mt FOB at the end of last week, with the lower end of the range corresponding to offers in Vietnam and the Middle East, while the higher end corresponds to indicative offers in Europe.
In Turkey, local HRC offers are at $560-570/mt ex-works, with $5/mt discounts considered possible. Local demand is still moderate, but the pressure on exports is increasing due to CBAM issues, mills report. In the meantime, import offers are not aggressive, with China ranging within $495-505/mt CFR this week for March shipment cargoes. The latest deal was closed at $497/mt CFR, as SteelOrbis reported. HRC offers from Egypt have remained at $565/mt CFR, while the workable prices from Malaysia stand at $550-555/mt CFR for March shipments. Sanctioned Russian HRC is at $480-485/mt CFR Turkey with a $10/mt discount considered possible, buyers say. The non-sanctioned HRC seller from Russia is currently out of the market, being sold out for March shipments.
In the GCC, this week HRC import activity has remained limited, with buying mainly driven by confirmed deals rather than overall market demand. Most interest has continued to focus on Indian origin material, while overall trading conditions have remained cautious amid stable price levels. According to market sources, Indian suppliers sold one cargo of HRC for end-of-February shipment, with material delivered to the UAE at around $495/mt CFR and to Oman at $490-495/mt CFR. Despite these sales, follow-up buying interest has remained weak, even as Indian offers to the UAE have edged slightly higher to $495-500/mt CFR for late February and March shipment. In addition, India has concluded several high-grade HRPO coil sales to the UAE. Three cargoes of approximately 5,000 mt, 8,000 mt, and 15,000 mt have been sold for delivery to Abu Dhabi and Jebel Ali. While the exact prices were not disclosed, sources indicated premiums of about $90-110/mt over standard HRC, putting the price levels at roughly $590-600/mt CFR. No new deals have been reported from other origins. Chinese suppliers increased SS400 offers to $500-510/mt CFR for March shipment but did not secure sales. Russian material was heard at $480-485/mt CFR, while Japanese and Taiwanese offers remained unchanged at $490-495/mt CFR and $495-500/mt CFR, respectively.
European HRC prices have seen an upward push this week, led by ArcelorMittal, which has raised its domestic offers across the EU by approximately €30/mt compared to last month. Specifically, in the local EU market, ArcelorMittal has announced its new price target for HRC at €700/mt delivered, mainly for April deliveries, up €30/mt from the previous official levels announced last month. Other European mills, especially those in the north, are expected to attempt to follow suit in the near term. However, most market sources believe that the latest offers overlook the prevailing market dynamics. With limited purchasing, delayed restocking and flat demand, the current price increases seem to be CBAM-induced rather than demand-led. At the same time, local mills in northern Europe and Italy have kept targeting €650/mt ex-works for orders for March delivery, the same as last week. The tradable price levels for mainly March delivery coils have been estimated at €640-645/mt ex-works, up by €5-10/mt week on week, with a few transactions reported to have been done in Germany at the abovementioned levels, while the tradable price level has been estimated at €630-640/mt ex-works in Italy, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
In the import segment, indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €490-540/mt CFR, compared to €490-565/mt CFR last week, while HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been voiced at €610-630/mt levels, depending on the supplier. According to sources, at the end of last week-beginning of this week, a cargo for around 20,000-30,000 mt of ex-Algeria HRC was booked at around €540/mt CFR southern Europe.