Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) trade activity has remained limited during the year-end holidays and, while small-volume deals were concluded at unchanged prices, most mills were re-working pending offers at higher levels, and increasing export allocations for the last quarter of the current fiscal year, expecting significantly higher prices to be absorbed in major destinations over the coming weeks, SteelOrbis has learned from trade and industry circles.
The reference price for ex-India HRC is still at $595-610/mt FOB, stable from last week. But most local mills are holding back from concluding deals, with expected price realizations to touch at least $620-640/mt FOB in the coming weeks even with EU-based buyers remaining quiet.
The sources said the latest deal was from an eastern India mill to an Asian trader at $598/mt FOB. But the same mill which submitted an offer for 25,000 with a Gulf-based buyer, deferred price negotiations for a week and speculated that the revised offer would be submitted in the range of $630-640/mt FOB.
“Global cues are turning positive. Even with the EU market remaining under pressures from costs, we expect export realizations to improve by 5-7 percent in the short term,” an official at a private mill said.
“The key issue is that mills do not have large export allocations for the current quarter. The success in leveraging the improving global situation will lie in how mills are able to increase the export allocations in the short span. Re-submissions of offers are a challenge too as they risk resistance from buyers in the spot market,” he said.
