Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have increased over the past week, as fixed in some deals. And even though overall demand from Europe and the Middle East has not been strong, optimism has remained high among sellers readying to finalize higher export allocations and submit higher offers for May-June shipments in the coming weeks, SteelOrbis has learned from trade and industry circles.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 2 mm HRC stands at $715-760/mt FOB, with the midpoint at $737.5/mt FOB, up by $12.5/mt on average over the past week from $700-750/mt FOB earlier.
Among the few trades reported over the past week is one for a tonnage of 10,000 mt booked by a MENA-based buyer with an eastern India-based integrated mill at $715/mt FOB, while a Maharashtra-based seller confirmed a trade for 15,000 mt to an undisclosed buyer at $728/mt FOB, sources said.
The indicative price for Indian coils to Vietnam has been reported at $735/mt CFR or $715/mt FOB. Most mills have not been interested in offers to this destination.
In addition, around 20,000 mt of ex-India coil changed hands to Europe at $830/mt CFR, which translates to $760/mt FOB, taking into account the higher freight compared to that to Italy. Previous offers from India were at $810-820/mt CFR in early March, but now mills’ offers are at $830/mt CFR minimum and they believe that prices have not reached their peak yet.
“Indian mills are nearing the finalization of higher export allocations for the April-June quarter and are expected to submit higher offers as local mills in Europe have all increased local prices of flat products,” a source at a large Indian mill said.
According to an official at another private mill, sellers are targeting ex-India prices at levels of $780-800/mt FOB once they start submitting offers for June shipments.
One of the sources claimed that, after mills in Europe have competed the largest round of local price increases, ex-India HRC will still remain competitive even amid revised higher offers.
However, a steel sector analyst at a Mumbai-based financial advisory firm maintained a more conservative outlook on the export front. “Higher ex-India offers over the next few weeks are almost a certainty. What is not certain is the extent of the increase that sellers are targeting,” he said.
“Chinese sellers still remain very aggressive in most export destination and their offers are still below the $700/mt FOB mark. They too are expected to increase offers but possibly at a slower pace. How this will impact Indian mills’ export pricing is still to be seen,” he said.
