Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have remained notionally unchanged, but local mills have persisted in holding back offers amid mounting pessimism in key overseas markets while focusing on local sales, resulting in the continuation of complete silence on the export front.
More specifically, ex-India HRC prices have remained at $590-620/mt FOB, the same as last week. However, according to market insiders, some large mills are also reported to have received stray inquiries for small HRC tonnages but most of the bids have been below the $530/mt FOB mark, prompting sellers to decline. They said that, even with the recent weakening of the local market, price realizations have been much better than overseas sales and, considering that integrated mills are getting ready to hike base prices for November, export allocations and sales are mostly on the backburner.
At the same time, according to traders but not confirmed by the sellers, an eastern India-based mill had commenced talks with an UAE-based buyer for 10,000 mt of HRC for December delivery, but the deal failed to be concluded as no agreement could be reached on a price negotiation at around $560/mt FOB.
“We do not see any change in the silent export trade front at least until the end of December. There is just too much cheap supply with no support from the demand side. Indian sellers are unlikely to sell at aggressive pricing in competition with cheaper options when domestic sales remain attractive despite intermittent corrections,” an official at Jindal Steel and Power Limited told SteelOrbis.
“We can hope for some change in January in markets like Europe where prices seem to have bottomed out and imports could become viable in the New Year. But with a large number of suppliers there, it will still be a challenge to increase export allocations in the last quarter of the fiscal year, and it is still not clear whether and when Indian mills will return to the export market,” he added.
