Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have shown early signs of firming this week, supported by slightly improved demand in the Middle East, while other key export destinations have remained largely unchanged. At the same time, deal activity has stayed limited and largely unconfirmed, as Indian mills continue to prioritize strong domestic sales and remain cautious about pushing export volumes.
More specifically, ex-India HRC offers have been reported in the range of around $475-480/mt FOB in the Middle East, up by $5/mt week on week. In particular, most offers for ex-India HRC are at $500-505/mt CFR UAE, compared to last week’s deal prices at $495/mt CFR UAE and at $500/mt CFR Oman. In the meantime, there has been market charter about fresh deals signed for ex-India HRC in Qatar and the UAE at slightly higher price levels of around $480/mt FOB and $482/mt FOB, respectively, but these deals have not been confirmed by the time of publication.
“The improvement in demand in the Middle East has been triggering some optimism among sellers, prompting slight hikes in offer levels. However, it is too early to say whether trade will gain momentum,” an official at a mill not involved in the export sales told SteelOrbis.
“In our assessment, Indian mills will not be very aggressive in pushing sales overseas unless the price consolidates further because domestic sales volume and prices are very good and export allocations for the last quarter will be limited,” he added.
Furthermore, this week offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $487-490/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week, which translates to around $470/mt FOB. However, according to sources, Vietnamese customers’ bids are still voiced at lower prices of around $485/mt CFR and slightly below.
At the same time, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have remained rare. Indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Europe have been voiced at $570-575/mt CFR, the same as last week, which translates to around $520/mt FOB. Though lower offers at around $500-510/mt FOB have also occasionally been voiced in the EU, but no deals have been reported due to CBAM and safeguard quota issues.
As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has settled at $470-520/mt FOB, the same last week, with the lower end of the range corresponding to offers in Vietnam, while the higher end corresponds to indicative offers in Europe.