Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) offers have remained largely stable over the past week, with some upward adjustments by major mills driven by rising input costs and firm global market cues. However, trading activity has been limited across most export destinations due to regulatory constraints in Europe and delivery uncertainties in the Middle East.
Indicative offers for ex-India HRC to the Middle East have been reported at $530-550/mt FOB, unchanged week on week. Market sources noted that buyers in key destinations have been resisting cost-driven price increases due to a combination of factors, including trade barriers, limited viable shipping routes to certain Middle Eastern ports, and demand conditions that, while steady, are not strong enough to support higher offer levels.
Meanwhile, offers to Europe have been heard at $620-640/mt FOB, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $20/mt. Corresponding CFR offers in the region have been reported at $700-720/mt. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certification process, along with additional costs imposed on buyers, continues to weigh on trading activity.
At least two officials from major Indian mills confirmed that sales negotiations with European buyers have stalled due to delays in obtaining Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions certifications from EU-accredited third-party agencies operating in India. Currently, only three such agencies recognized by the EU are active in the country. Market participants highlighted that the certification process typically takes three to four weeks, by which time pricing dynamics may have shifted, complicating decision-making for both buyers and sellers.
“We expect to submit our first verified emissions certificate to a European buyer within the next week, after which negotiations will resume. We anticipate discount requests in the range of 2-3 percent following certification,” an official at a private mill told SteelOrbis.
At the same time, indicative offers for ex-India HRC to Vietnam have been reported at $600-610/mt CFR, equivalent to around $580/mt FOB, unchanged from the previous week.
As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has remained at $530–640/mt FOB. The upper end of the range has increased by $20/mt week on week, reflecting higher offer levels in Europe despite the absence of concluded deals.
