Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have remained relatively stable over the past week, but trade activity has continued to be almost silent, attributed to the challenging terms of buyers in the Middle East and Europe who are highly averse to import risks.
Specifically, ex-India HRC offers in the Middle East have remained mainly unchanged in the range of $480-490/mt FOB, but no deals could be concluded amid irreconcilable discounts demands of $20-30/mt sought by buyers. Offers from one of the Indian mills to the UAE have been voiced at $505-510/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week. However, another Indian producer has been offering its material a bit higher or at around $515/mt CFR UAE, according to sources,
According to the sources, while demand is still “alive” in the Middle East, buyers there have only been willing to close a sale at lower levels compared to offers, against the backdrop of uncertain global price trends.
Meanwhile, in Europe ex-India HRC offers have been estimated at $520/mt FOB and above, the same as last week, which translates to around $575/mt CFR, but buyers have remained cautious owing to weak demand and preferring to avoid risks of trade barriers including the impending carbon tax. At the same time, offers through traders for ex-India HRC including CBAM costs have been voiced at around €580-600/mt CFR.
It is worth mentioning that the past week’s leaked document unveiled the European Commission’s long-expected draft CBAM benchmark values, offering EU importers key inputs for estimating steel import costs beginning January 1, 2026, as SteelOrbis reported earlier. Yet the benchmarks are not final, and some in the sector have cast doubt on them. According to preliminary calculations based on the leaked draft, CBAM costs for HRC imported into the EU would reach around €223/mt for Indian HRC. As a result, the market reaction to these figures has been overwhelmingly negative, with most participants doubting their accuracy and questioning whether the draft values can be taken as credible.
Furthermore, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $495-500/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week. However, according to sources, an offer from one of the Indian mills for around 30,000 mt is reported to have been voiced in Vietnam at $488/mt CFR, though no information about a fresh deal has been confirmed by the time of publication.
As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has remained at $480-520/mt FOB, the same as last week.
“There is selective demand in some key destinations, but the market is price-sensitive. Our assessment is $450-460/mt FOB can work, but Indian mills are unwilling to be that aggressive,” a Tata Steel Limited associate told SteelOrbis.
“Several factors will decide if sellers will further adjust prices to push sales overseas, like the inventory situation, export allocations in the next quarter and domestic sales realizations. We however may see some sellers working out acceptable discounts in ongoing sales negotiations in the Middle East,” he added.
