Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have shown a slight downward bias over the past week in some trade destinations such as the Middle East. However, prices in other destinations have moved sideways. Overall trade activity has remained weak, as most buyers are either pushing for further discounts or staying on the sidelines, uncertain about the short- and medium-term outlooks amid an extremely cautious global trade environment, while Indian sellers have refused to reduce prices any further so far.
Specifically, ex-India HRC offers from mills have settled at around $500-510/mt FOB to the Middle East, down by $5/mt week on week, which translates to around $525-535/mt CFR UAE. “Indian mills are eyeing anything near to $500/mt FOB,” a market insider told SteelOrbis. However, some bids from the Middle East have also been heard at around $480-490/mt FOB.
Meanwhile, most indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been estimated at $515-520/mt CFR, the same as last week, which means around $495-500/mt FOB in Vietnam. According to the sources, distributors and users are mostly adequately stocked and are unwilling to conclude fresh import bookings unless the price is discounted by sellers as the global market lacks a firm direction.
Furthermore, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have been voiced at $555/mt FOB, the same as last week, which translates to around $610/mt CFR, though no fresh deals have been reported so far. As for Europe, customers have been mostly dependent on sourcing from local mills and are avoiding imports owing to risks of quota exhaustion, regulatory hurdles related to carbon tax and the rising freight costs from Asian ports.
“Demand is moderate but concluding deals is challenging because buyers are extremely price-sensitive. Deals in the Midde East can work out at levels below the $480/mt FOB mark, but Indian sellers cannot sustain such discount levels on a regular basis. Also, China increased its activity in the region before leaving for its long holiday with what we hear were deals at $500-505/mt CFR UAE,” an official at a Tata Steel Limited affiliate told SteelOrbis.
“In our assessment, Indian mills will be extremely conservative in fixing export allocations for the October-December quarter. Without a good price recovery, we don’t foresee many mills being aggressive on the export front,” he added.
Thus, although Indian suppliers have slightly cut their offers to the Middle East, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has remained at $495-555/mt FOB, with the lower end of the range corresponding to offers in Vietnam and with the higher end corresponding to offers in Europe.
