Ex-India HRC prices have moved up notionally over the past week, largely driven by continued increases in the Indian domestic market rather than by any meaningful improvement in overseas demand. While mills have raised offer levels, these higher prices have yet to be firmly established in new export deals, with trading activity remaining cautious across key destinations.
More specifically, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in the Middle East are at $520-530/mt FOB, mainly the same as last week. However, overall optimism for a revival of export trade has receded after sales negotiations based on alternative shipping routes to Saudi Arabia stalled over a lack of agreement on CIF (cost, insurance, freight)-based contracts. According to an official at a large mill, involved in any current export sales, shipping delivery routes via the Strait of Bab al Mandeb on the Red Sea are not considered to be viable as freight and insurance charges have been found unacceptable since the risks in the region are reported to have increased in recent weeks.
In the meantime, ex-India HRC offers to Europe have been reported at approximately $620/mt FOB, versus $590-600/mt FOB last week, with indicative offers standing at $700/mt CFR southern Europe. “The freight rate is currently estimated at around $80/mt,” a market insider told SteelOrbis. According to sources, Indian HRC producers have begun progressing with CBAM-related requirements, with major mills currently undergoing pre-verification processes and expecting to have key elements in place within the next couple of months. However, uncertainty remains as the EU has yet to formally nominate or declare the authorised verification agencies.
At the same time, offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been estimated at around $540/mt CFR, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range, which translates to around $520/mt FOB.
Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $520-620/mt FOB, up by $5-30/mt week on week.
It is worth mentioning that local Indian HRC trade prices have continued to firm up over the past week, supported by reduced import competition, tightening supply and anticipated base price hikes from mills. In particular, HRC trade prices have increased by INR 1,000/mt ($11/mt) to INR 57,000/mt ($613/mt) ex-Mumbai, while in the south they have risen by INR 1,200/mt ($13/mt) to INR 59,900/mt ($645/mt) ex-Chennai, as SteelOrbis reported earlier.
