Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have largely remained unchanged, or have been showing only a slight upward bias in some offers. Besides, HRC export prices from Indian suppliers have been reported with wide variations across geographies, while actual trade has remained mainly muted, with buyers in the Middle East taking a pause from new purchases during Ramadan, while the EU market is still silent.
Offers for ex-India HRC have been voiced at $490-510/mt FOB, against $485-510/mr FOB last week. According to sources, following several deals for ex-India HRC in the UAE at $515/mt CFR last week, this week talk about a sale of 10,000 mt at $490/mt Qatar delivery has been circulating in the market. At the same time, indicative prices for ex-India HRC have been estimated at $520/mt CFR and higher in the UAE.
Furthermore, some offers at around $490/mt FOB or around $515-520/mt CFR have been submitted in Vietnam by at least two large Indian mills, but no information on any deals have been confirmed by the latter. "Vietnam initiated an antidumping (AD) investigation into Indian and Chinese steel exports last year. However, the findings later revealed that Indian imports were minimal, accounting for less than three percent of the total, leading to their exclusion from the provisional antidumping duties. This offers Indian mills some relief, potentially allowing them to resume exports to the Southeast Asian market,” a market insider said.
In the meantime, HRC buyers in Europe have reported ex-India HRC indicative offer prices at $610/mt CFR, which translates to around $555/mt FOB, standing in line with other foreign suppliers, including those from Vietnam and Taiwan. Notably, the EU's recently announced AD probe results found no evidence of dumping of HRC imports from India, effectively exempting them from duties. In contrast, provisional tariffs ranging from 6.9 percent to 33 percent will take effect on imports from Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam starting on April 7, 2025. Thus, according to sources, while Indian imports remain unrestricted, Vietnam, with a moderate 12.1 percent duty, could still present competition in the EU market going forward.
“There is some stability seen in most markets, which is a positive. But buyers are still very price-sensitive and the price needs to be adjusted for deals to work out. There was positive restocking seen in the Middle East, which is just about keep ex-India activity ticking over. In Vietnam, local producers are attempting to increase prices but facing buyers’ resistance. But the market has not consolidated high enough to trigger much interest in ex-India offers either,” an associate of Tata Steel Limited told SteelOrbis.
