Ex-India hot rolled coil prices have remained under pressure from domestic oversupply during the past week and buyers are reassessing the emerging trends. But even as a few mills have attempted to nudge up offer levels in Europe, generally suppliers have had to slightly correct prices down again to stay competitive in other outlets, in Asia, in particular.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India HRC has settled at $500-590/mt FOB with the midpoint at $545/mt FOB, down by $5/mt from last week.
However, only a few mills are heard to have been submitting offers at a higher level like $590/mt FOB in Europe, attempting to leverage local price increases but no deals were confirmed. At the same time, buyers in Europe have not been “seriously” considering ex-India imports as most are still reassessing the impact of new lower country-specific tariff quotas and a new price trend emerging possibly on a soft trend.
So, excluding European destinations, Indian HRC prices have been hovering at $500-535/mt FOB for two other major outlets, Southeast Asia and the GCC.
The sources said that, in the Middle East, ex-India official offers were facing competitive challenges from the increased activity of Chinese sellers.
One of the mills has been offering to the UAE at $535/mt FOB, while some other offers have been reported to this destination at the previous $540/mt FOB. However, to conclude deals, suppliers will have to drop prices by another $10-15/mt, market sources said, so trading in this sales destination has been subdued. A rumor about a sale at $520/mt FOB has been denied by a number of market participants.
The lower price that Indian suppliers can provide is for the Vietnamese market, as competition is very tough there and it has been one of the most important outlets for India in terms of sales volumes. The general range of offers for Indian HRC to Southeast Asia is $500-525/mt FOB, where the higher end of the range corresponds to offers with a big part (30-50 percent) including thinner 2 mm coils. For basic 3 mm material, $500/mt FOB is assessed as workable by Indian mills, translating to $530/mt CFR Vietnam. But just today, some local sources reported offers for Indian HRC through traders at $525/mt CFR.
“Indian sellers are under dual pressures from excess stocks domestically and higher competition from more ex-China sales. Improving prices in Europe are unlikely to have any immediate impact as both buyers and sellers are still assessing the impact on trade flows under the new quotas,” an Indian mill said.
