Ex-China HRC prices reverse last week’s gains as local and futures markets falter

Following the brief upward movement in Chinese HRC export prices at the beginning of last week, this week the market has turned negative again, with both HRC domestic and futures prices slipping and dampening sentiment among Chinese exporters. As a result, most ex-China HRC offers both from mills and traders have been rolled back this week, while overall trading activity has remained slow.

Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $465-480/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $472.5/mt FOB, down by $2.5/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller private mills have been voiced mainly at $460-468/mt FOB, compared to $465-475/mt FOB last week.

At the same time, while offers from most Chinese traders have settled at $455-465/mt FOB, down by $10/mt week on week, according to sources offers from non-VAT traders have been voiced at $445-455/mt FOB, compared to $450-455/mt FOB last week.

In particular, ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC offers in Vietnam have been voiced at $470-472/mt CFR, for January shipment, down by $5-8/mt week on week.

Meanwhile, Chinese offers for SS400 HRC to other destinations like the Middle East have been estimated at $480-505/mt CFR UAE, depending on the supplier, down by $5-10/mt week on week, while some traders have reported deal prices at $475-480/mt CFR UAE.

Besides, Chinese Q195 HRC offers to Turkey have been estimated at $471-485/mt CFR for early January-February shipment, for re-rolling grade, from $485-495/mt CFR last week. Besides, SAE1006 HRC is available at around $513/mt CFR, while material with a pipe-making breakdown is at $452/mt CFR, in line with the previous week.

“The Chinese HRC market saw another day of adjustment as coke prices have continued their sharp decline over the past two to three days. With weaker cost support, HRC has more room to move down lower during the winter, and limited speculative buying has kept inventories largely unchanged. As a result, domestic prices have continued to fall,” a market source told SteelOrbis.

“In the export market, mills followed the downward trend, with several leading producers cutting base offers to attract bids and releasing more allocations for faster shipment,” he added.

In the meantime, average HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market have indicated decreases compared to the previous week amid declining HRC futures prices. In particular, domestic HRC prices in China are at RMB 3,320-3,420/mt ($469-483/mt) ex-warehouse on December 9, with the average price level RMB 43/mt ($6.1/mt) lower compared to that recorded on December 2, according to SteelOrbis’ data.

On December 8, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting to analyse and study economic work for 2026, saying that China will adhere to the principles of pursuing progress while ensuring stability and improving both quality and effectiveness, while there are big uncertainties regarding the actual effect of the policies to be issued. However, most market insiders believe that the demand for HRC is remaining slack during the traditional cold winter offseason, which will exert a negative impact on prices.
Besides, major Chinese steelmaker Baosteel has decided to raise its local base prices by RMB 100/mt ($14/mt) for hot rolled coil for delivery in January next year, which will bolster market sentiments to a certain degree. 

It is thought that HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market may edge down slightly in the coming week.

As of December 9, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,252/mt ($459/mt), decreasing by RMB 73/mt ($10.3/mt) or 2.2 percent since December 2, while declining by 1.42 percent compared to the previous trading day, December 8.

$1 = RMB 7.0773