The EU HRC market is still in the slow summer period which is characterized by plant stoppages and maintenance works. Therefore, trading activities have been very quiet in the past two weeks, especially in the Italian market, where many players will resume their activities only at the end of the month. Compared to early August, transaction prices decreased by €15/mt on average, to €1,000-1,160/mt ex-works. More specifically, achievable prices are currently in the €1,000-1,050/mt range in the Italian market and mostly at €1,130-1,160/mt in northern Europe, all ex-works.
According to sources, local mills and buyers hold different views on how the market will trend in September. On one hand, prices could decline further due to decreasing global raw material prices, competitive import offers, sufficient stock levels among distributors, and increasing capacity utilization at EU mills. Moreover, a strong surge in demand is not expected as the automotive sector is still suffering from the global semiconductor chip shortage. On the other hand, supply is still generally tight in the region, and mills in some cases are sold out until the end of this year. Additionally, some sources think that in the fourth quarter domestic prices could be supported by a potential settlement of the three-year-old steel tariff dispute between US and EU by November 1st, which might cause EU exports to increase. However, the removal of US Section 232 tariffs against EU would lead to a review by the EU of its steel safeguard, which in turn would cause import volumes to increase.
Even with the safeguard and several antidumping duties in place, import offers in the EU became cheaper in the past few weeks. For example, Turkish offers, which three weeks ago weren't lower than €920-930/mt CFR Italy, are now around €880-930/mt CFR, duties included. Ex-India offers have been reported at a similar level, while offers from Russia for the northern Europe market are slightly below €950/mt CFR.