After the US domestic flats market's upward movement stalled about a week ago, quiet deals once again surfaced as mills became more flexible with prices in order to fill holes in rolling schedules. Sources tell SteelOrbis that decent demand levels are not enough to overcome the downward pressure stemming from high steel production rates, a drop in scrap prices for February, and the growing spread between import tags expected to arrive in the US over the next two months. Hot rolled coil (HRC) spot prices have slipped by about $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) over the past week on the high end to $36.00-$37.00 cwt. ($794-$816/mt or $720-$740/nt) ex-Midwest mill and cold rolled coil (CRC) spot prices are unchanged at $40.00-$42.00 cwt. ($882-$926/mt or $800-$840/nt) ex-Midwest mill although most transactions are beginning to trend toward the lower end of the range.
Still, because mill lead times are already out until mid-March, any continued softening in flat rolled spot prices is expected to be incremental. And there is already speculation that mills may try for an increase next month for April orders if scrap prices rebound in March as some predict. Although drops in domestic spot prices are not expected to be substantial--at least not yet--even minor weakness in the US domestic market will likely keep futures booking activity quiet until domestic prices shows signs of firming or import offer prices drop.
| Cwt. | Metric Ton (mt) | Net ton (nt) | Change from last week | |
| US domestic | ||||
| HRC | $36.00-$37.00 | $794-$816 | $720-$740 | ↓ $1.00 cwt. on high end |
| CRC | $40.00-$42.00 | $882-$926 | $800-$840 | neutral |
| China* | ||||
| CRC | $39.00-$40.00 | $860-$882 | $780-$800 | neutral |
| Russia* | ||||
| HRC | $33.50-$34.50 | $739-$761 | $670-$690 | neutral |
| Turkey* | ||||
| HRC | $33.00-$34.00 | $728-$750 | $660-$680 | neutral |
| Korea** | ||||
| HRC | $36.00-$37.00 | $794-$816 | $720-$740 | newly offered |
**DDP loaded truck in US West Coast ports