Yesterday, SteelOrbis reported that US domestic scrap prices are expected to soften during next month’s buy cycle, however, extended finished steel lead times and still-strong demand are expected to keep flat rolled steel prices stable.
“Scrap prices are expected to come down because more scrap is flowing into the yards,” a source said. “With finished steel sales still as strong as they are, we don’t expect softer scrap prices will knock the wind out of coil pricing.”
And while current US flat prices have continued to rise in the past week, some question whether that momentum is losing steam. This week’s HRC and CRC prices have both firmed by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) on the top end, which puts the HRC range at $64-$66 cwt. ($1,411-$1,455/mt or $1,280-$1,320/nt) FOB mill, and the CRC range at $74-$76 ($1,631-$1,676/mt or $1,480-$1,520/nt), FOB mill.
Others, however, point to still-extended lead times and still-strong demand from the automotive sector, despite the global semiconductor shortage. "Taking that into consideration, I'm don't think a downtrend is imminent. I think one is coming but I don't think it's coming soon," another source mused.
“Everyone keeps looking at what’s going on with prices and we’re all still scratching our heads,” a final source added. “Just when we think prices can’t possibly go higher, the market firms by another $1.00 cwt. It’s madness. This isn’t sustainable and prices will, at some point, go down. Where they’ll finally settle is anyone’s guess.”