Although the “official average” spot market price for US domestic HRC is still being reported in the range of $29.00-$30.00 cwt. ($639-$661/mt or $580-$600/nt), ex-mill for most customers, sources close to SteelOrbis say that the numbers are misleading.
“The CRU [price index] price, and the true market price aren’t in line,” a source said, noting that his company has been quoted closer to $27 cwt. ($595/mt or $540/nt), ex-mill. “The CRU is definitely higher.”
Another source agreed. “It’s all a big ‘cluster fudge’ at this point,” he added. “Demand is mushy, and I largely suspect we’re going to see lead times shrink in the next few weeks.”
And while mills have been determined to keep flats prices stable, news that US scrap prices are forecast to soften during the February buy cycle, has many people wondering if HRC prices are about to soften.
“We’re taking a wait-and-see approach before we make any decisions,” another source said, noting that sentiment about February scrap prices has dampened throughout the week. “I guess we’ll all know more in the next few days, but the expectation is that if scrap takes a dive, that the mills are going to have a really hard time keeping flats prices where they are. The demand just isn’t there.”