Here's how WSD comes up with this incredible viewpoint:
- China in the next decade will have a major rise in household consumption as a share of GDP and a sizable decline in fixed asset investment as a share of GDP. However, per trillion of RMB, household spending in China is only about 1/10 as steel intensive as fixed asset investment spending.
- The US will have an investment boom because of its huge reserves of low-cost natural gas. By about 2020, the US may become energy independent.
- The Information Revolution, which is spurring a technological revolution in manufacturing processes, is now benefiting manufacturers in the Advanced Countries just as much as those in the Developing World.
- The US has become the best place in the world to build a new plant that produces manufactured goods. The US offers available high-quality workers, the prospect for very high labor productivity (in part offsetting the high wage to a major extent), good transportation systems (rivers, roads and railroads), large and high-end markets, reasonable construction costs versus many countries (although still far above China's), sizable financial incentives provided by state and local authorities, no disadvantage in global sourcing and no country risk.
| World Steel Dynamics' Crude Steel Forecast | ||||||||
| (million metric tonnes) | ||||||||
| 2011 | 2012e | 2013e | 2013/2012 y/y | 2016 | CAGR 2012-2016 | 2025 | CAGR 2016-2025 | |
| Advanced Countries | 471 | 469 | 467 | -0.4% | 486 | 0.92% | 575 | 1.88% |
| Japan | 107.6 | 107.2 | 107.0 | -0.2% | 110.8 | 0.8% | 128.0 | 1.6% |
| Western Europe | 147.7 | 142.4 | 135.6 | -4.8% | 138.9 | -0.6% | 160.0 | 1.6% |
| United States | 86.2 | 89.4 | 93.0 | 4.0% | 98.1 | 2.3% | 122.0 | 2.4% |
| Small Cap. Adv. | 129.8 | 129.9 | 131.6 | 1.3% | 138.4 | 1.6% | 165.0 | 2.0% |
| China | 680 | 710 | 725 | 2.1% | 769 | 2.01% | 925 | 2.07% |
| Developing World ex-China | 364 | 370 | 378 | 2.1% | 415 | 2.91% | 615 | 4.47% |
| Africa | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 2.5% | 7.5 | 1.7% | 12.0 | 5.4% |
| Brazil | 35.2 | 35.2 | 37.1 | 5.5% | 41.8 | 4.4% | 65.0 | 5.0% |
| CIS | 113.1 | 113.0 | 114.6 | 1.5% | 123.5 | 2.2% | 165.0 | 3.3% |
| Eastern Europe | 15.6 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 0.3% | 16.4 | 2.0% | 25.0 | 4.8% |
| Developing Asia | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.6 | 1.3% | 24.0 | 2.9% | 35.0 | 4.3% |
| India | 72.2 | 76.7 | 78.2 | 2.0% | 88.0 | 3.5% | 150.0 | 6.1% |
| Latin America | 32.8 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 0.0% | 34.7 | 1.7% | 50.0 | 4.2% |
| Turkey | 34.1 | 35.8 | 38.0 | 6.0% | 42.1 | 4.1% | 58.0 | 3.6% |
| MENA | 32.4 | 33.4 | 33.4 | 0.0% | 37.0 | 2.6% | 55.0 | 4.5% |
| World Total | 1,515 | 1,549 | 1,570 | 1.3% | 1,670 | 1.90% | 2,115 | 2.66% |
| Source: WSD estimates | ||||||||
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