Mexico: Efforts continue to pull out of the economic tailspin. A recently reported increase in US consumer spending actually is good news for Mexico because the vast majority (almost 80%) of Mexico’s exports go to its neighbor to the north. Industrial output in July saw the fastest monthly increase in four years. The Central Bank held the benchmark interest rate at 4.5% for the second straight month. Because of revenue shortfalls, the government is considering moderate tax increases. This will be a tough political battle for the president, since GDP for Q2 contracted sharply and is expected to fall -7.5% for the year. This would make it the largest contraction in 75 years. Unemployment hit a 13-year high in August.
Canada: The economy remains stalled even though June’s economic growth saw a slight monthly increase of 0.1%. But Q2 as a whole still fell -0.9% compared to the previous quarter. The government will spend C$46.5 (US$43.5) billion in stimulus money over the next two years. Included in this amount will be C$9.7 (US$9.1) billion for the automotive industry. Prime Minister Harper also claims that this program has so far created or saved 220,000 jobs. Furthermore, the government announced that it will extend the mortgage purchase program until 2011, enabling banks to increase their lending activities.
Nafta Steel Shipments: The global recession is being reflected in the intra-NAFTA steel imports as well. The latest available data are as of June 2009. In June, total intra-NAFTA steel shipments were down -49.1% when compared to last year. The first six months of 2009 show a decline of -49.7% from the year before.
General Data:
|
| GDP Compared to previous year | Consumer Price Index and last year | Industrial Production | Unemployment | Trade Balance past 12 months | Currency as of Sept. 23 (and last year ) |
| -10.3%, Q2
| +5.1%, Aug (+5.6%) | -6.5%, July | 6.3%, Aug | -$16.0 bn, July | 13.4 (10.8) | |
| -3.2%, Q2 | -0.8%, Aug (+3.4%) | -12.7%, June | 8.7%, Aug | +$9.5 bn, July | 1.07 (1.03) |
Automotive and Steel Production
|
| Total Units Aug. | + - 2008 | Units Year-to-date | + - 2008 | Steel prod, Aug. (000/MT) | + - 2008 | Year-to-date (000/MT) | +- 2008 |
| 137,394 | -32.4% | 876,962 | -39.6% | 1,195 (e) | -23.0% | 8,936 | -30.0% | |
| 141,711 | -19.6% | 850,602 | -41.3% | 700 (e) | -48.6% | 5,674 | -49.4% |
Total Intra-NAFTA Steel Shipments: July 2008-June 2009 in Thousands Metric Tons
|
| Ttl Intra-NAFTA | From US | From Mexico | From Canada |
| 4,455 | 4,321 | 51 | - | |
| 2,954 | 2,556 | - | 398 | |
| US | 6,281 | - | 2,056 | 4,226 |