Mexico: Central Bank officials have indicated that the Mexican economy will show growth in Q3 again, ending the steep recession it has experienced since Q4 of last year. Given the strong Q3 growth in the US, Mexico's most important export destination, this expectation seems to be well-founded. Mexico's automobile production increased in each of the three months in Q3. Consumer confidence went up slightly in September to 81.9 from 81.5 in August and the benchmark interest rate was kept at a historical low of 4.5%. But there are still worrying signs. Industrial Production in August still is far behind last year and even fell -1.4% compared to July. The unemployment rate hit a 14-year high in September.
Canada: The monthly snapshot of the Canadian economy came in unexpectedly negative in August. GDP contracted -0.1%. The Central Bank's forecast that Q3 will see at least a 2.0% growth over the previous quarter could be in jeopardy. Oil and gas extraction fell -2.3% in August and primary metals and machinery both dropped in their output as well. Following its formerly announced blueprint, the Central Bank will keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.25% until June of next year.
General Data:
GDP Compared to previous year | Consumer Price Index (and last year) | Industrial Production | Unemployment | Trade Balance past 12 months | Currency as of Oct 28 (and last year) | |
-10.3%, Q2 | +4.9%, Sep (+5.5%) | -7.3%, Aug | 6.4%, Sep | -$12.6bn, Aug | 13.3 (12.9) | |
-3.2%, Q2 | -0.9%, Sep (+3.4%) | -15.2%, July | 8.4%, Sep | +$3.1, Aug | 1.08 (1.23) |
Automotive and Steel Production
Total Units Sep | + - 2008 | Units Year-to-date | + - 2008 | Steel Prod Sep 000/MT | + - 2008 | Year-to-date 000/MT | +- 2008 | |
151,394 | -22.9% | 1,028,356 | -37.6% | 1,100 (e) | -18.5% | 9,951 | -29.5% | |
163,898 | -14.4% | 1,013,168 | -38.2% | 630 (e) | -53.0% | 6,043 | -51.9% |
Total Intra-NAFTA Steel Shipments August 2008-July 2009 in Thousands Metric Tons
Ttl Intra Nafta | From US | From Mexico | From Canada | |
4,125 | 3,994 | 82 | - | |
2,704 | 2,338 | - | 366 | |
US | 5,782 | - | 1,897 | 3,885 |