The opening session of the SteelOrbis Fall '07 Conference and 57th IREPAS meeting featured presentations from the greatly respected and experienced SteelOrbis/IREPAS regulars, Jose A. Rey of Grupo CELSA, and Sudarshan Singh of Al-Tuwairqi Group.
While most of the
US steel markets have declined since the last SteelOrbis/IREPAS Barcelona conference in April, (which IREPAS chairman Mr. Ugur Dalbeler alluded to in his opening remarks, saying that there weren't as many smiling faces at this conference as there were in Barcelona) Mr. Rey's and Mr. Singh's presentations both assured the conference-goers that despite the lackluster few months for the steel market, the global outlook for long products remains positive.
Grupo CELSA's Mr. Rey opened his presentation with some positive news: his research shows that the US
construction and housing market woes will not have a large impact on the
rebar market situation worldwide, and that the overall outlook for the global economy is positive.
The US GDP, Mr. Rey said, is expected to have a soft landing this year, with a 2.2 percent rate expected for '07, and a slight bounce-back to 2.8 percent expected for 2008. In '07 and '08,
China will maintain high GDP growth rates of over 10 percent, while another developing country,
India, will maintain a growth rate of 7.5 percent. Overall, the global growth rate expected for '07 is 4.8 percent, a rate which will be maintained in '08.
In addition to the continued economic growth, Mr. Rey said, worldwide steel
consumption is expected to grow as well. Mr. Singh showed the audience statistics from steel group IISI, which showed a 4.9 percent rate of steel
consumption growth expected for '07, and a 4 to 6 percent rate growth expected for the coming years.
While steel
production in the US,
Japan, and
Europe is expected to remain stable in the next few years, the emerging markets of
China,
India, and
Russia are expected to continue their astronomical steel growth, with total annual finished steel
consumption reaching 500 million tons, 50 million tons, and 46 million tons, respectively, by the end of 2009.
Demand for long products, and
rebar in particular, will also continue its strengthening trend in the coming years, Mr. Rey said. Worldwide
rebar consumption has grown at a very good pace since 2005, especially when compared to sections
consumption, and especially in
Southeast Asia, Mr. Rey's figures showed. The reason for this is the strong
construction markets in emerging countries, which have been using more rebars than sections in recent years, Mr. Rey explained. Looking ahead, continued population growth, particularly in Asia, is expected to keep worldwide
rebar consumption strong.
Mr. Rey concluded with a positive pricing outlook, predicting that the upward price trend and healthy market prices in the growing world
longs markets to continue, with the exception of
North America.