The opening session at the SteelOrbis Fall '10 Conference and 63rd IREPAS meeting featured the presentation of Kim Marti Subirana of CELSA, who said that steel demand in the long term is firming up again, although at different speeds depending on the region. Mr. Marti also remarked that long product prices are set on a rising trend for the long term, while price volatility still remains high.
Regarding the macroeconomic situation, stating that the global recovery is stronger than had been previously anticipated, Mr. Marti stressed that the recovery is proceeding at different speeds in various regions, modestly in advanced economies and faster in many emerging and developing economies.
In his presentation, Mr. Marti indicated that finished steel consumption is expected to grow by 10.7 percent this year, following a decline of 7.2 percent in 2009, while stressing that the global recession had no impact on Chinese finished steel consumption, which rose by 22.5 percent last year.
Marti also pointed out that the share of global long steel consumption in total global finished steel consumption increased from 42.8 percent in 2000 to 52.8 percent in 2010 and that the rate of increase of this share had accelerated in 2009 due to the milder effect of the economic crisis on developing countries.
Long steel consumption grew by 96 percent from 1998 to 2010, while the share of rebar consumption in total consumption rose by six percentage points, the share of consumption of sections regressed from 13 percent to seven percent, due to the drop in construction activity in the US and in Europe, while the share of merchant bar and wire rod consumption remained unchanged over the same period.
Mr Marti said that the long products markets now have a consistent demand base although at low levels, adding that this will help to build confidence in the supply chain.
Mr. Marti told the attendees that demand will continue to grow, but at different speeds in different regions and that a stronger pace will be seen in emerging countries in Asia, Africa and South America, particularly in Brazil -"the bright star of the Americas".
Mr. Marti remarked that the volatility in scrap prices has started to show higher lows in a long-term uptrend, due to restricted availability. Purchases from relevant buyers and the approach of winter could help lift prices in the coming weeks, Mr. Marti projected.