According to a study by Japan Iron and Steel Federation, the global steel scrap generation outlook has been revised, with total volumes expected to reach 873 million mt by 2050, local sources reported.
Global scrap generation outlook revised, growth trend intact
According to the JISF study, global steel scrap generation is projected to reach 873 million mt by 2050, marking a downward revision compared to the previous edition. Despite this revision, scrap generation volumes are still expected to grow significantly in the long term. Compared to 2020 levels, global scrap generation is forecast to increase by 36 percent, or 232 million mt, pointing to a steady upward global trend.
According to industry sources citing the revised dataset, the adjustment reflects:
- Lower expected steel demand growth in developed regions
- Changes in steel stock accumulation patterns
- Slower scrap generation growth in China
Regional disparities intensify
The updated forecast highlights increasingly divergent regional dynamics in scrap generation.
- In developing countries (excluding China), scrap collection is expected to reach 370 million mt by 2050, revised upward by 16 million mt compared to the previous estimate.
- For China, the forecast has been lowered by 26 million mt to 311 million mt.
- For developed economies, the forecast has been reduced by 20 million mt to 193 million mt.
These changes point to a slowdown in mature markets, while long-term prospects for steel demand and scrap availability in developing regions have strengthened.
Steel demand assumptions drive revision
According to the JISF study, the main driver behind the revised outlook is the change in long-term steel consumption expectations.
- Steel demand in developing markets is now projected at 923 million mt, up by 143 million mt.
- China’s forecast has been lowered to 621 million mt.
- Developed economies’ demand is expected to reach 257 million mt.
Shift in global scrap supply center
The JISF study indicates that by 2050, the geographical center of scrap supply will gradually shift away from China and developed economies toward developing countries. At the same time, more than 85 percent of global scrap resources are expected to be consumed by the steel industry, primarily by electric arc furnace based production.
