According to Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japanese demand for crude steel in the April-June quarter of fiscal year 2026 is expected to total 20 million mt, down two percent from the previous quarter’s estimated result and decreasing by 0.7 percent compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.
METI’s latest report forecasts Japan’s steel demand, including exports, for the April-June period of fiscal year 2026 at 17.98 million mt. This figure represents a 1.5 percent decline year on year and a 1.3 percent decrease compared to the previous quarter’s estimated result.
Meanwhile, of the total demand in the current quarter, 14.32 million mt is expected to be for ordinary steel, decreasing by one percent year on year and by 0.5 percent compared to the previous quarter, while 3.66 million mt of demand is expected to be for special steel, down 3.8 percent year on year and declining by 4.3 percent from the previous quarter.
Construction conditions remain challenging
According to METI, the overall demand environment in the construction sector remains largely unchanged, as labor shortages and rising material costs continue to weigh on activity. In the civil engineering segment, public works budgets are expected to stay at high levels as in the previous fiscal year, though steel demand is forecast to remain flat year on year due to higher construction costs. In the building construction segment, the impact of rising material and labor costs, together with labor shortages, is expected to persist, leading to a year-on-year decline in demand.
The report also stated that the automotive sector is expected to remain stable both in the domestic market and overseas, with no major change in the current demand environment. Meanwhile, the industrial machinery segment is projected to continue its gradual recovery and record a year-on-year increase.
Exports expected to remain flat year on year
Japan’s steel exports in the April-June quarter of fiscal year 2026 are expected to amount to 6.09 million mt, increasing by 0.5 percent from the previous quarter and down by one percent compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.
METI stated that demand remains lackluster, particularly in China and Southeast Asia, while the impact of trade measures against Japan continues. The ministry also emphasized the need to keep monitoring the effects of China’s deteriorating steel supply-demand balance on surrounding markets, as well as developments in US tariff policies.