The global long steel products market is facing significant challenges. Demand remains weak and competition is intensifying across all regions. Mills are struggling to maintain operations and profitability, often resorting to production cuts. Protectionist measures continue to be implemented, while exports from China and other Asian countries are flooding international markets and exerting downward pressure on prices. Moreover, the diversion of imports due to US tariffs has created disruptions worldwide.
At the end of the holiday season, there is cautious optimism that longs demand may improve slightly in the coming months. A modest price increase in the Chinese domestic market had a mildly positive effect, but further developments in China will need to be monitored closely. Anticipated interest rate cuts could contribute to a more favorable market atmosphere, but mills continue to operate with low capacity utilization rates and minimal profits, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of this situation.
In Europe, imports remain high while demand is subdued. However, production halts during the summer months may help restore some balance to the market during the fourth quarter. German domestic prices have dropped significantly between June and August, but, although activity remains slow, there is some expectation that September could bring a modest recovery.
In the US, demand is soft and domestic supply is largely sufficient to meet current needs, resulting in stable or slightly declining prices despite the 50 percent import duty. Capacity utilization remains below 80 percent, and with additional capacity expected to come online, this figure may decline further. The market is waiting for interest rate cuts and potential changes to import duties, so much so that many stockists are postponing expectations of more favorable conditions. Legal uncertainty is contributing to an already unpredictable market environment, as five of President Trump’s tariff rulings are currently being challenged in court.
Overall, the global long steel products market remains unstable and difficult to forecast. While prices are generally within long-term trends, the underlying fundamentals and policy scenarios are volatile. The outlook for the next quarter is unsatisfactory, with weak demand and ongoing uncertainty likely to persist.