International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has issued its latest global steel sector outlook report for 2025.
Accordingly, Fitch has revised its global steel sector outlook for 2025 to neutral in line with its expectations of a slight improvement in the steel industry following sluggishness in 2024, largely based on a balance in the Chinese steel market, decreasing costs and a mild increase in steel prices and producers’ margins. Also, in 2025, apparent steel consumption is expected to rise by single digits with the support of growth in India, stable demand from China and a recovery in both the US and the EU.
In the meantime, the agency predicts that steel production in China will keep declining by single digits next year, with demand expected to be almost stable. However, margins of Brazilian, Turkish, European and Indian steelmakers are likely to recover amid a decrease in steel imports from China.
Looking at other markets, India is forecast to maintain its position as major growth market owing to increases in its production and consumption, while Brazilian steel industry should improve due to a decrease in imports and positive demand growth. Furthermore, the European steel industry is expected to show a slight recovery following several years of downturn, while the US steelmakers’ margins will continue getting back to normal levels.
Fitch also added that possible trade measures hinted by the new US administration and an increase in protectionism in other regions will likely affect the global economy. Additionally, the US increasing tariffs on goods from China will increase pressure on steel consumption in China and have negative impact on global markets.